trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +0.2% | -9.4% | 50% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 67% | 0% | -8.9% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +4.2% | -5.7% | 56% | 22% | -7.9% |
| all | 27 | +1.9% | -7.8% | 56% | 7% | -8.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.8% | 7% | -8.2% |
| 10% | -16.7% | 4% | -17.0% |
| 15% | -24.7% | 0% | -25.0% |
| 20% | -32.1% | 0% | -32.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 85¢ | $40 | $39 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 23 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 23 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 26 | $35 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 25 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 24 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 24 | $1 | $0 | +24% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 24 | $31 | +$4 | +12% |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | May 23 | $35 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 23 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 17 | $2 | $0 | -5% |
| Will Amazon buy TikTok? | Jun 23 | $15 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? | May 12 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi | May 11 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? | May 10 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? | May 10 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2025? | May 10 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $97000 and $99000 on May 9? | May 09 | $15 | $0 | +2% |
| Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen | May 09 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? | May 08 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 | May 07 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? | May 07 | $14 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 06 | $15 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? | Mar 27 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? | Mar 26 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump's approval rating be less than 46.0% on March 28? | Mar 25 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Mar 23 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| DePaul vs. Creighton | Feb 26 | $15 | $0 | +1% |