Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:50:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1bf…7780 crypto 382 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$538 (-4%) realized −$583 · open +$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%159W / 217L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2,975now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$34
14 days−$28
30 days−$663
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$754
other 21% −$35
world 15% +$24
tech 1% −$31
politics 1% +$77
sports 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -19.9% -27.5% 29% 29% -23.5%
≤30d 189 -6.4% -15.3% 46% 44% -18.7%
≤90d 311 -8.1% -16.8% 46% 44% -15.2%
all 376 -7.7% -16.4% 42% 41% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 41% -15.7%
10% -24.4% 41% -23.8%
15% -31.7% 39% -31.2%
20% -38.4% 39% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$21 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$2,975
Realized−$583
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses159 / 217
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)376 / 382
History coverage159d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 376 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $2,330 $2,391 +$61 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 77¢ $400 $404 +$4 (+1%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $115 $101 −$14 (-12%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 89¢ 95¢ $74 $79 +$5 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 74¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 195 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $59 −$6 -10%
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 28 $101 −$9 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$5 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$9 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $13 +$16 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $3 +$5 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $13 +$12 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$4 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $9 +$11 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $14 +$28 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$20 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$11 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$11 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $54 1h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 59¢ $92 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $59 1h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 63¢ $101 1h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 38¢ $117 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $403 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,975.13 · official $2,975.13 (match) · 2299 history records