Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:40:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1ba…e2b1 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$112 (-11%) realized −$112 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate22%10W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$112
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$77
other 31% −$44
crypto 9% +$30
economics 3% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-46.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -39.8% -45.6% 23% 20% -9.8%
≤30d 44 -39.8% -45.6% 23% 20% -9.8%
≤90d 44 -39.8% -45.6% 23% 20% -9.8%
all 45 -40.7% -46.3% 22% 20% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.3% 20% -21.6%
10% -51.5% 20% -29.1%
15% -56.1% 20% -36.0%
20% -60.4% 20% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -69% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$12 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$112
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses10 / 35
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage232d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $30 $0 -1%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $51 −$1 -3%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $31 $0 -1%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 +$53 +105%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 21 $51 +$49 +97%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 +$17 +84%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 +$17 +86%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $10 +$9 +86%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $20 +$14 +69%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $5 +$8 +162%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 −$7 -71%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$10 +9%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 +$50 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $15 +$70 +460%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Australia? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $160 −$125 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $61 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $30 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 52¢ $49 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 34¢ $30 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 10h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 10h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $31 10h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $104 11h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 13h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 13h
Uruguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 14h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 19h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 11¢ $5 20h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 96¢ $37 21h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $38 21h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 23h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 23h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 26h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 26h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 26h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 52¢ $19 32h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 32h
Japan leading at halftime? SELL Yes 88¢ $34 33h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 35h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 35h
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 35h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.06 · official $75.06 (match) · 86 history records