Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D1 0xd1b9…3fa2 other 8 markets active 3d ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+5%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% $0
sports 43% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +5.2% -4.8% 75% 75% -4.5%
≤30d 4 +5.2% -4.8% 75% 75% -4.5%
≤90d 4 +5.2% -4.8% 75% 75% -4.5%
all 4 +5.2% -4.8% 75% 75% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 75% -4.5%
10% -13.9% 75% -13.7%
15% -22.2% 50% -22.0%
20% -29.9% 25% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage4d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +58%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3 +$1 +39%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $3 +$1 +24%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 3d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 56¢ $4 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 77¢ $2 6d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 6d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 56¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL FUT Esports 44¢ $1 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 29¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 39¢ $2 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 84¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 39¢ $1 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 50¢ $2 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 7d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 7d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.59 · official $8.59 (match) · 22 history records