Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:50:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1b3…b432 weather 294 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$170 (+0%) realized +$162 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%281W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$352per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3,468now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$110
14 days+$221
30 days+$343
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$123
sports 0% +$33
other 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +1.4% -8.3% 100% 2% -8.9%
≤30d 127 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 1% -9.0%
≤90d 286 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 1% -9.4%
all 286 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 1% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$91 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$3,468
Realized+$162
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses281 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)286 / 294
History coverage87d
Avg bet$352
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 286 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,888 $1,891 +$3 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $715 $716 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $177 $177 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 23? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $172 $173 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $162 $163 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $125 $126 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $125 $125 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $97 $97 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $140 +$6 +4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $102 +$28 +27%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $20 +$2 +8%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $495 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1,136 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $429 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $869 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $332 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 20? Jun 20 $144 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 20 $2,088 +$10 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 20 $368 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 20 $570 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $78 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $166 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $186 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $313 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $499 +$1 +0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $72 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $515 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $699 +$16 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $102 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $181 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 18? Jun 18 $129 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $815 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $249 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $419 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $302 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $415 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $667 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $59 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $998 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $327 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $132 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $443 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $64 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $599 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,309 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $71 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $39 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $140 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $21 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,468.42 · official $3,468.42 (match) · 2152 history records