Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:38:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1b0…3f04 crypto 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$609 (+3%) realized +$609 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%47W / 75L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$545
7 days−$88
14 days−$587
30 days+$689
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$416
crypto 15% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +64.7% +49.0% 50% 25% -16.7%
≤30d 28 +33.7% +20.9% 57% 50% -5.7%
≤90d 122 -8.3% -17.0% 39% 34% -7.7%
all 122 -8.3% -17.0% 39% 34% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 34% -7.7%
10% -24.9% 25% -16.5%
15% -32.2% 22% -24.6%
20% -38.8% 18% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -33% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$57 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$609
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses47 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)122 / 122
History coverage89d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 122 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $360 −$185 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $400 −$360 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $114 +$457 +400%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $240 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $140 −$120 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $280 +$1,678 +599%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $385 −$371 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $307 −$88 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $50 +$74 +149%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2,212 −$866 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $2,100 −$481 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $560 −$178 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $81 +$54 +67%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $373 +$260 +70%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,716 +$525 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $60 +$40 +67%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1,082 +$118 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $229 −$229 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $503 +$75 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1,223 +$19 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $188 +$256 +136%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $164 −$76 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1,502 −$120 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $22 +$8 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $1,149 +$246 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $119 +$21 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $606 +$133 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $171 −$59 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 21 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 21 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 13 $6 +$9 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 13 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 10 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 10 $25 +$75 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 10 $10 +$45 +453%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 10 $8 +$12 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 10 $35 +$65 +186%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $175 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $40 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $71 13h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $50 13h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $123 13h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $115 13h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $44 14h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 14h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 14h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $136 14h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 14h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 14h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 14h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $60 14h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 14h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 15h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $83 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $68 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $0 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $231 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $9 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $16 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $28 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $52 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $82 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $35 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $22 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 639 history records