Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:17:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D1 0xd1b0…7efc weather 441 markets active 0h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$126 (+2%) realized +$156 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate40%152W / 225L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,313now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$154
sports 1% −$52
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +3.1% -6.7% 100% 0% -6.1%
≤30d 4 +3.1% -6.7% 100% 0% -6.1%
≤90d 300 +10.6% +0.1% 43% 20% -7.4%
all 377 +10.3% -0.2% 40% 22% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.2% 22% -7.5%
10% -9.8% 19% -16.3%
15% -18.5% 17% -24.4%
20% -26.5% 15% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +65% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$3,313
Realized+$156
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses152 / 225
Open positions64
Markets (closed)377 / 441
History coverage104d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 64 History 377 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $250 $258 +$8 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 18? No 94¢ 90¢ $252 $243 −$9 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17? No 95¢ 96¢ $175 $177 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 17? No 98¢ 98¢ $174 $175 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? No 96¢ 94¢ $174 $171 −$3 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? No 95¢ 88¢ $174 $162 −$12 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18? No 97¢ 98¢ $129 $131 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 17? No 95¢ 98¢ $103 $106 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $102 $106 +$4 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $103 $104 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 17? No 96¢ 97¢ $99 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 19? No 94¢ 92¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? No 92¢ 86¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? No 90¢ 71¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 18? No 98¢ 98¢ $51 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 17? No 97¢ 98¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 17? No 99¢ 98¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $101 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $250 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 7? Apr 08 $27 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 53°F or below on April 7? Apr 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on April 8? Apr 08 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on Apri Apr 07 $27 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on April 7? Apr 07 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on April 7? Apr 07 $34 −$33 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on April 7? Apr 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 7? Apr 07 $27 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 7? Apr 07 $28 +$31 +111%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ap Apr 07 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on April 7? Apr 07 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 7? Apr 07 $30 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 68-69°F on April 7? Apr 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 7? Apr 07 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on April 7? Apr 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on April 7? Apr 07 $31 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Ap Apr 07 $34 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 67°F or below on April 7? Apr 07 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 32-33°F on April 7? Apr 07 $34 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on Apri Apr 07 $27 −$26 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 7? Apr 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 7? Apr 07 $25 −$25 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on April 7? Apr 07 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Ap Apr 07 $30 −$29 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 7? Apr 07 $36 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on April 7? Apr 07 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 7? Apr 07 $36 −$18 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on April 6? Apr 07 $35 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 6? Apr 07 $36 +$14 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on April 6? Apr 07 $36 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 6? Apr 06 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 6? Apr 06 $39 +$14 +37%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 6? Apr 06 $39 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 6? Apr 06 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 6? Apr 06 $39 +$15 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 6? Apr 06 $36 −$36 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 6? Apr 06 $37 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 6? Apr 06 $38 +$7 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on April 5? Apr 06 $35 +$6 +18%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ap Apr 06 $35 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on April 5? Apr 05 $34 +$5 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on April 5? Apr 05 $35 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on April 5? Apr 05 $35 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 5? Apr 05 $35 +$10 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 5? Apr 05 $36 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 5? Apr 05 $36 +$12 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C or below on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $20 14m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $14 14m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 14m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $20 14m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $20 15m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 18 BUY No 98¢ $20 15m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $15 28m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $35 32m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $87 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $52 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $140 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 BUY No 95¢ $37 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $30 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $30 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $87 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $100 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or below on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $37 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $69 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,313.27 · official $3,316.76 (match) · 964 history records