Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:13:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1af…0427 politics 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%2W / 33L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$399per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$8
world 22% −$2
politics 20% −$4
culture 8% −$2
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 +0.0% -9.5% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 35 -0.0% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 35 -0.0% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$799) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses2 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage82d
Avg bet$399
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? No 97¢ 98¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $1,109 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $15 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,128 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,112 −$1 -0%
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $1,126 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $1,079 −$1 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $52 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $1,153 −$1 -0%
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 15 $1,089 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $48 $0 -0%
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? May 25 $36 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland? May 22 $799 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $793 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $745 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 18? May 21 $33 +$1 +3%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? May 19 $22 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $778 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $811 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $775 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 05 $133 $0 -0%
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Apr 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Apr 04 $22 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Detry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 01 $118 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 01 $24 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? Mar 28 $163 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 28 $22 $0 -0%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 28 $58 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,107 38m
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 53m
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,093 1h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $859 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $58 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $268 6h
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 6h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,128 7h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 29h
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,111 29h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $27 29h
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,049 29h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $17 29h
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 30h
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $207 30h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 30h
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 30h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $755 30h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $323 30h
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $40 30h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,079 31h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? SELL No 99¢ $49 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $17 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $16 2d
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,152 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $15 2d
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,124 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $34 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.41 · official $58.41 (match) · 108 history records