Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:52:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1ae…035c politics 192 markets active 0h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,442 (-0%) realized −$1,442 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate17%32W / 160L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,561per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$25
14 days−$117
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$175
other 39% −$228
sports 7% −$1,071
world 4% −$16
economics 2% −$10
culture 2% −$8
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.0% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 64 +5.2% -4.8% 12% 9% -9.5%
≤90d 126 +1.8% -7.9% 7% 5% -10.0%
all 192 -0.4% -9.9% 17% 11% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 11% -10.0%
10% -18.5% 11% -18.6%
15% -26.4% 10% -26.5%
20% -33.6% 7% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,349) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$15 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,442
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses32 / 160
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)192 / 192
History coverage157d
Avg bet$1,561
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 192 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $1,625 −$2 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,724 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $3,242 −$5 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $313 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,413 −$2 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 16 $1,353 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2,493 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5,518 −$6 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $160 +$2 +1%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 11 $1,346 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,236 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $2,669 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $3,747 −$4 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,067 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $3,865 −$4 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $3,080 −$4 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,123 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $1,234 −$2 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $84 −$84 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $85 +$26 +31%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $2,790 −$6 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $2,588 −$4 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $2,643 −$4 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $5,965 −$7 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 04 $53 +$71 +134%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $1,126 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $1,342 −$2 -0%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $71 +$77 +109%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,031 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $12,311 −$13 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $173 $0 +0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $1,208 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $920 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,494 −$4 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $3,134 −$4 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $2,424 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $915 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $3,910 −$5 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $1,089 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $1,127 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 29 $1,122 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,126 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,133 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $2,666 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,125 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $4,762 −$6 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $1,349 −$2 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 25 $85 −$85 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $459 2m
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $460 1h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $423 1h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $424 3h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $377 7h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $378 9h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $218 24h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $218 26h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $313 26h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $313 28h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $208 31h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $208 33h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,351 3d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,353 3d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,360 3d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,361 3d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,364 4d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,366 5d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,374 6d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,376 7d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,343 8d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,346 8d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $1,343 8d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $1,346 8d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,234 9d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,236 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,147 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,149 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,342 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,344 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 692 history records