Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:09:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D1
0xd1ac…08d5
politics · 58 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$739,723 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$709,018 · open +$22,224
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$398,099
Realized+$709,018
Unrealized+$22,224
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses35 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$513
Open positions9
Markets (closed)95 / 58
History coverage145d
Avg bet$108,909
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 9 History 95 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$170,530
7 days+$470,957
14 days+$467,443
30 days+$497,712
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 91¢ 97¢ $129,196 $137,700 +$8,504 (+7%)
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $99,600 $101,750 +$2,151 (+2%)
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? No 98¢ 100¢ $43,784 $44,703 +$918 (+2%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $25,382 $25,739 +$357 (+1%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 35¢ 89¢ $7,172 $18,217 +$11,046 (+154%)
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? No 63¢ 100¢ $11,239 $17,801 +$6,562 (+58%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 29¢ 36¢ $14,017 $17,362 +$3,346 (+24%)
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Yes 13¢ 100¢ $1,914 $14,648 +$12,733 (+665%)
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $9,277 $9,447 +$170 (+2%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 21¢ 18¢ $4,448 $3,714 −$735 (-17%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $3,281 $2,933 −$348 (-11%)
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-11.5) Duke Blue Devils 52¢ 100¢ $1,294 $2,489 +$1,195 (+92%)
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorney General by June 30? No 35¢ 100¢ $311 $895 +$584 (+188%)
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? Yes 42¢ 100¢ $124 $296 +$172 (+139%)
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menery Manziel 52¢ 100¢ $104 $200 +$96 (+92%)
Will Bill Cassidy be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? No 59¢ 100¢ $81 $136 +$55 (+68%)
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $44 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No 80¢ 86¢ $18 $20 +$1 (+8%)
Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading? No 79¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+27%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Dan Bongino out as Deputy Director of the FBI by July 31? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $4,329 $0 −$4,329 (-100%)
Will Trump end DOGE in 2025? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? No 3¢ 0¢ $837 $0 −$837 (-100%)
Boxing – Salt Papi vs. Tony Ferguson Salt Papi 78¢ 0¢ $1,365 $0 −$1,365 (-100%)
Colts vs. Steelers Colts 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 12 $11,239 +$7,563 +67%
Dan Bongino out as Deputy Director of the FBI by July 31? Jun 12 $4,329 −$4,726 -109%
Will Trump end DOGE in 2025? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Boxing – Salt Papi vs. Tony Ferguson Jun 12 $1,365 −$1,365 -100%
Colts vs. Steelers Jun 12 $1 +$500 +97917%
Vikings vs. Browns Jun 12 $911 −$911 -100%
Will the New York Yankees win the 2025 World Series? Jun 12 $1,318 −$928 -70%
Will the Texas House pass HB 4 by August 19? Jun 12 $514 −$528 -103%
UFC 319: Murphy vs. Pico Jun 12 $590 −$590 -100%
Any Texas House Democrats arrested by August 19? Jun 12 $192 −$192 -100%
Bonfim vs. Padilla Jun 12 $563 −$563 -100%
Will the Texas House vote on HB 4 by August 19? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will EJ Antoni be confirmed as BLS Commissioner in 2025? Jun 12 $1,383 −$1,271 -92%
Texans vs. Patriots Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Eagles vs. Chiefs Jun 12 $470 −$470 -100%
Will the Packers win the NFC Championship? Jun 12 $1,995 −$1,917 -96%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 12 $2 −$949 -39539%
Dvalishvili vs. Sandhagen Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Tigers vs. Mariners Jun 12 $480 −$480 -100%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Jun 12 $14 −$17 -121%
TikTok sale announced by September 30? Jun 12 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 12 $147 −$147 -100%
Rams vs. Eagles Jun 12 $440 −$440 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Saint Denis vs. Ruffy Jun 12 $1,960 −$1,960 -100%
Bills vs. Patriots Jun 12 $675 −$675 -100%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Fed rate cut by December meeting? Jun 12 $289 −$285 -99%
Will Andrew Cuomo run as a non-Democrat in the general election? Jun 12 $9,934 −$11,470 -116%
Will Trump resign today? Jun 12 $0 +$182,745 +67758443%
Will the government shutdown end November 12? Jun 12 $5,573 −$5,573 -100%
Dern vs. Jandiroba Jun 12 $550 −$550 -100%
TCU vs. North Carolina Jun 12 $390 −$390 -100%
Will Pete Hegseth be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025? Jun 12 $126 −$126 -100%
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed in 2025? Jun 12 $97 +$220 +227%
Packers vs. Broncos Jun 12 $350 −$350 -100%
Will Bad Bunny perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Jun 12 $188 −$188 -100%
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 12 $41 −$254 -618%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Jun 12 $5 −$137 -2823%
Will Jim Harbaugh be fired by February 28? Jun 12 $70 −$99 -142%
Luigi Mangione mistrial? Jun 12 $88 −$88 -100%
MetaMask airdrop in Q3 2025? Jun 12 $6 +$155 +2393%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jun 12 $0 +$130 +424135%
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Jun 12 $0 +$17,112 +194460193%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $2,644,919 +$300,427 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 31 $7,957 −$3,514 -44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $69,119 −$4,926 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $12,887 −$12,737 -99%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 24 $8,699 −$5,639 -65%
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menery May 24 $1,285 −$353 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 49% +$341,174
world 23% +$111,691
economics 18% +$60,650
other 7% −$6,084
sports 3% +$53,282
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $2,540 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $7 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $6 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $24 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,635 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 96¢ $684 10h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 96¢ $2,986 10h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 95¢ $4,770 11h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 97¢ $4,840 16h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $4,805 16h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,228 17h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 97¢ $50 17h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 97¢ $62 18h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,335 18h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 97¢ $65 18h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 97¢ $504 18h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 97¢ $45 18h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 97¢ $29 18h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 97¢ $691 18h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 97¢ $3 18h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 97¢ $134 18h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 97¢ $687 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $11,410 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $62 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 22h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 94¢ $4,695 36h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 94¢ $130 38h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 94¢ $2 38h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 94¢ $0 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+85.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +147.7% +124.2% 18% 18% -0.3%
≤30d 54 +132.0% +109.9% 22% 19% -0.1%
≤90d 78 +118.1% +97.3% 29% 21% -1.5%
all 95 +104.8% +85.3% 37% 25% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +85.3% 25% -3.0%
10% +67.6% 22% -12.3%
15% ← realistic here +51.4% 18% -20.7%
20% +36.5% 17% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $398,099.43 · official $398,089.16 (match) · 3500 history records