Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:47:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

D1 0xd1ab…bbdc sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$279 (+7%) realized +$293 · open −$14

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate77%10W / 3L

Drawdown52%max

Avg bet$211per market

Trades / day10.2pace

Fees−$19est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$1,447now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)-9.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	-0.1%	-9.6%	77%	62%	-3.6%
≤30d	13	-0.1%	-9.6%	77%	62%	-3.6%
≤90d	13	-0.1%	-9.6%	77%	62%	-3.6%
all	13	-0.1%	-9.6%	77%	62%	-3.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.6%	62%	-3.6%
10%	-18.2%	54%	-12.8%
15%	-26.1%	8%	-21.3%
20%	-33.4%	8%	-29.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 53% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -0% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -0% → late -0% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$46 vs −$95 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$1,447

Realized+$293

Unrealized−$14

Win rate (resolved)77%

Wins / losses10 / 3

Est. fees paid−$19

Open positions6

Markets (closed)13 / 20

History coverage3d

Avg bet$211

Trades / day10.2

Drawdown52%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5	Under	91¢	92¢	$675	$678	+$4 (+1%)
Will South Africa be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	Yes	85¢	84¢	$603	$600	−$3 (-1%)
Will South Africa reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	96¢	96¢	$89	$88	−$1 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5	Under	80¢	60¢	$74	$55	−$19 (-26%)
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	0¢	1¢	$10	$16	+$6 (+60%)
World Cup: Scoreless Team?	Yes	81¢	72¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup	Jun 18	$74	$0	+0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 18	$669	+$6	+1%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$186	−$184	-99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$554	+$150	+27%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$266	+$90	+34%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$378	+$86	+23%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$93	+$14	+14%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$173	−$80	-46%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Jun 16	$100	+$73	+73%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 16	$10	+$2	+23%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	Jun 16	$10	+$2	+24%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	Jun 15	$20	−$20	-99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	Jun 15	$131	+$34	+26%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	80¢	$74	43m
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup	SELL No	97¢	$74	51m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	91¢	$677	1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	96¢	$675	1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners AND Ghana vs. Panama:	BUY	59¢	$97	3h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	66¢	$186	4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	100¢	$704	5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	78¢	$554	6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$356	6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	74¢	$266	8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	100¢	$464	8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	81¢	$378	11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	87¢	$93	25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	40¢	$93	25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	72¢	$173	27h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	57¢	$100	31h
Will South Africa reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	96¢	$89	46h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	100¢	$12	2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	99¢	$12	2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	79¢	$10	2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	81¢	$10	2d
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup	BUY No	97¢	$74	2d
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup	BUY No	0¢	$10	2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	71¢	$10	2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	60¢	$10	2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	99¢	$165	2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	95¢	$669	2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	78¢	$131	2d
World Cup: Scoreless Team?	BUY Yes	81¢	$10	2d
Will South Africa be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	BUY Yes	85¢	$606	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,446.61 · official $1,514.85 · 35 history records