Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:23:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D1 0xd1aa…986e crypto 833 markets active 0h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$70 (+2%) realized +$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate72%599W / 234L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$33
14 days−$33
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$94
other 4% −$60
sports 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 -24.8% -32.0% 68% 19% -10.6%
≤30d 120 -24.8% -32.0% 68% 19% -10.6%
≤90d 120 -24.8% -32.0% 68% 19% -10.6%
all 833 +1.6% -8.1% 72% 54% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 54% -8.5%
10% -16.9% 41% -17.3%
15% -24.9% 25% -25.3%
20% -32.2% 14% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses599 / 234
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)833 / 833
History coverage121d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 833 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$8 +16%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$5 +10%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$6 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$5 +11%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$2 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$7 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$13 +25%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$5 +11%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$17 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $44 +$5 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$9 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$2 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$3 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$3 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$2 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$3 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $43 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$3 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$6 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$2 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$4 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$5 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$10 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$3 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $50 3m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 58m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $24 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $50 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $51 6h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $51 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 9h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $44 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $50 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 32h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 32h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $19 43h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2129 history records