Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:36:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D1 0xd1a6…6190 other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$127 (+9%) realized +$69 · open +$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%8W / 13L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$388now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$108
7 days+$25
14 days+$99
30 days+$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$201
crypto 14% +$7
sports 11% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -12.3% -20.7% 50% 40% -5.8%
≤30d 21 +5.7% -4.4% 38% 33% +0.0%
≤90d 21 +5.7% -4.4% 38% 33% +0.0%
all 21 +5.7% -4.4% 38% 33% +0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 33% +0.0%
10% -13.5% 33% -9.5%
15% -21.9% 29% -18.3%
20% -29.5% 24% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$16 · ×2.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$388
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses8 / 13
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)21 / 24
History coverage20d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $111 $170 +$59 (+53%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $119 $117 −$2 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $102 +$102 +101%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $187 +$7 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $49 +$13 +26%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $24 +$15 +62%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$14 +48%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $7 −$1 -10%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 20 $10 $0 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 20 $10 $0 -4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 20 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 +$122 +398%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $35 −$3 -9%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $102 −$33 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 98¢ $204 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 2h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $101 2h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $194 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $123 20h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $123 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $61 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $29 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 5d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $25 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $7 8d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 8d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 8d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 8d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 61¢ $10 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 62¢ $10 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 43¢ $19 8d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 63¢ $19 8d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $7 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 8d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $387.51 · official $385.29 (match) · 73 history records