Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:59:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1a6…6c8e sports 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$58 (-4%) realized −$43 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate71%39W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$2
other 14% −$17
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +2.8% -7.0% 83% 46% -8.4%
≤30d 55 -1.8% -11.2% 71% 40% -9.9%
≤90d 55 -1.8% -11.2% 71% 40% -9.9%
all 55 -1.8% -11.2% 71% 40% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 40% -9.9%
10% -19.7% 16% -18.5%
15% -27.5% 9% -26.4%
20% -34.6% 9% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$43
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses39 / 16
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage28d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: QT DIG∞ vs IGZIST - Map 2 Winner QT DIG∞ 65¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $80 +$8 +10%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 27 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $100 +$3 +3%
Valorant: QT DIG∞ vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 27 $40 +$4 +10%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $66 +$47 +72%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands Jun 27 $58 −$8 -14%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $30 +$1 +4%
Honor of Kings: Kuaishou Gaming vs Douyu Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Leagu Jun 27 $10 +$1 +11%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $10 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: Spirit Academy vs Just Players (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Jun 27 $20 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 27 $10 +$1 +13%
Honor of Kings: One Star Esports vs Flash Wolves (BO5) - Arena of Valo Jun 27 $10 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs SAW - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $8 +$7 +81%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs SAW (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 27 $21 +$4 +18%
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 27 $30 +$2 +5%
Overwatch: Cheeseburger vs Falcons (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Sta Jun 27 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 27 $2 −$1 -50%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shopify Rebellion vs DarkZero Esports (BO1) - North Jun 27 $5 +$1 +11%
Valorant: SaD Esports vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage Jun 27 $5 +$1 +16%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 26 $8 $0 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $30 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs PCIFIC (BO3) - LG UltraGear To Jun 26 $19 +$2 +13%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $36 +$2 +7%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Jun 26 $18 +$3 +18%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs Clutchain Female (BO3) - Rainhas do C Jun 26 $15 +$2 +13%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula Jun 26 $3 +$1 +20%
Call of Duty: Boston Breach vs Vancouver Surge (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 26 $5 +$1 +21%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Cal Jun 26 $5 $0 +2%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 26 $5 +$1 +29%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Play Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 26 $21 +$2 +11%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: C9 vs DNS Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs Endless Journey (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 26 $10 +$1 +7%
Overwatch: ZETA DIVISION vs Falcons (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group St Jun 26 $10 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Jun 26 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super Dracu Jun 26 $5 +$1 +27%
Valorant: Ghools Esports vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag Jun 26 $5 +$1 +27%
Rainbow Six Siege: Outlast vs Cloud9 (BO1) - North America League Stag Jun 26 $10 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 26 $25 +$5 +20%
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 26 $25 +$6 +25%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $16 −$16 -98%
Piracicaba: Lucas Da Silva vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Jun 25 $3 +$3 +90%
Emma Navarro vs. Gabriela Ruse: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $3 +$2 +67%
Targu Mures (Doubles): Barrientos/Behar vs Cretu/Papoe Jun 25 $12 −$12 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Elina Svitolina Jun 25 $96 −$3 -3%
Tiffon vs. Blanch: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 08 $32 −$1 -3%
Tiffon vs. Blanch: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $29 −$1 -3%
Game 5: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 07 $27 −$10 -38%
Game 5: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 07 $27 −$10 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 2 Winner SELL Misa Esports 100¢ $88 4m
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT (BO3) - European Pro League Series SELL Misa Esports 100¢ $11 5m
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 5m
Valorant: QT DIG∞ vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage SELL QT DIG∞ 100¢ $44 10m
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 2 Winner BUY Misa Esports 95¢ $40 29m
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner SELL HULIGANI 100¢ $108 35m
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 2 Winner BUY Misa Esports 91¢ $30 35m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands SELL Pakistan 96¢ $28 45m
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 47m
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 64¢ $4 54m
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 35¢ $20 54m
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 79¢ $20 55m
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 77¢ $20 57m
Valorant: QT DIG∞ vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY QT DIG∞ 89¢ $20 1h
Valorant: QT DIG∞ vs IGZIST - Map 2 Winner BUY QT DIG∞ 45¢ $5 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 80¢ $10 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 58¢ $5 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 58¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 1 Winner SELL Misa Esports 100¢ $31 1h
Honor of Kings: Kuaishou Gaming vs Douyu Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Leagu SELL Kuaishou Gaming 100¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 1 Winner BUY Misa Esports 96¢ $30 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL DN SOOPers 100¢ $11 1h
Valorant: QT DIG∞ vs IGZIST - Map 2 Winner BUY QT DIG∞ 87¢ $5 1h
Valorant: QT DIG∞ vs IGZIST - Map 2 Winner BUY QT DIG∞ 79¢ $5 1h
Valorant: QT DIG∞ vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY QT DIG∞ 93¢ $20 1h
Honor of Kings: Kuaishou Gaming vs Douyu Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Leagu BUY Kuaishou Gaming 90¢ $10 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY DN SOOPers 94¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 73¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 2 Winner BUY Misa Esports 77¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY Misa Esports 93¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 159 history records