Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:38:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D1
0xd1a6…1507
weather · 764 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$30,753 -69%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,664 · open −$26,049
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$407
Realized−$1,664
Unrealized−$26,049
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 50
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions500
Markets (closed)50 / 764
Avg bet$58
Trades / day2898.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 500 History 50 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,664
7 days−$1,664
14 days−$1,664
30 days−$1,664
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $11,629 $29 −$11,600 (-100%)
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $422 $10 −$412 (-98%)
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $422 $10 −$411 (-98%)
Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $414 $10 −$404 (-98%)
Will Enrique Valderrama win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $414 $10 −$404 (-98%)
Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $414 $10 −$403 (-98%)
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $408 $10 −$398 (-98%)
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $406 $10 −$396 (-98%)
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $405 $10 −$395 (-98%)
Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $400 $10 −$390 (-98%)
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $396 $10 −$387 (-98%)
Will Mesías Guevara win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $396 $10 −$387 (-98%)
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $390 $10 −$381 (-98%)
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $388 $10 −$378 (-98%)
Will Fernando Olivera win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $381 $9 −$372 (-98%)
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $378 $9 −$368 (-98%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $377 $9 −$368 (-98%)
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Yes 6¢ 46¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+691%)
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 2 Haiti? Yes 6¢ 46¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+674%)
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $292 $7 −$285 (-98%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 6¢ 35¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+495%)
Will Sung-Jae Im win the 2026 Masters tournament? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+0%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $115 $3 −$112 (-97%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $115 $3 −$112 (-97%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $115 $3 −$112 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX raise less than $40B in its IPO? Jun 12 $186 −$185 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 14? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 14? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 13? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on June Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will AutoSleep: Watch Sleep Tracker be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Jun 12 $47 −$47 -100%
Will App A be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? Jun 12 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C or higher on June 12 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -100%
Will Robbie Keane be the next manager of Crystal Palace? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12 Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 11, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Austin Dyches be the Democratic nominee for MD-03? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Dathan Jones be the Republican nominee for Senate in Colorado? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 11? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 12 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 24, 2026? Jun 12 $64 −$64 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 22, 2026? Jun 12 $64 −$64 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/Nor Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $106 −$106 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Patrick Pentz record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Oliver Sail record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $77 −$77 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on I Jun 12 $69 −$69 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on Jun 12 $77 −$77 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $700B and $800B at market close on Jun 12 $77 −$77 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 11 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 11 $42 −$42 -100%
Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 11 $23 −$23 -100%
Will "Lawmen: Bass Reeves" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 11 $37 −$37 -100%
Will "Raw (June 8, 2026)" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be at least 2.50T? Jun 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Will South Korea score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $42 −$41 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 71% −$26,122
sports 10% −$47
tech 6% −$936
world 5% −$5
weather 4% −$540
politics 2% −$62
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX raise less than $40B in its IPO? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will SpaceX raise between $60B and $70B in its IPO? BUY No 100¢ $84 2m
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? BUY No 100¢ $84 2m
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? BUY No 0¢ $0 2m
Will SpaceX raise between $40B and $50B in its IPO? BUY No 100¢ $84 2m
Will SpaceX raise between $50B and $60B in its IPO? BUY No 100¢ $84 2m
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? BUY No 0¢ $0 2m
Will SpaceX raise between $40B and $50B in its IPO? BUY No 100¢ $25 2m
Will SpaceX raise less than $40B in its IPO? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will SpaceX raise between $50B and $60B in its IPO? BUY No 100¢ $25 2m
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? BUY No 100¢ $25 2m
Will SpaceX raise between $60B and $70B in its IPO? BUY No 100¢ $25 2m
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? BUY No 0¢ $1 2m
Will SpaceX raise between $40B and $50B in its IPO? BUY No 100¢ $126 2m
Will SpaceX raise between $50B and $60B in its IPO? BUY No 100¢ $126 2m
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? BUY No 100¢ $126 2m
Will SpaceX raise between $60B and $70B in its IPO? BUY No 100¢ $126 2m
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Morocco? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 95¢ $2 19m
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY No 98¢ $2 19m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? BUY No 98¢ $2 19m
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Morocco? BUY No 99¢ $2 19m
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 92¢ $2 19m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 94¢ $2 19m
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 88¢ $1 19m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY No 99¢ $2 19m
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY No 98¢ $2 19m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 94¢ $2 19m
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY No 96¢ $2 19m
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 87¢ $1 19m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-99.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -99.7% -99.7% 0% 0% -99.9%
≤30d 50 -99.7% -99.7% 0% 0% -99.9%
≤90d 50 -99.7% -99.7% 0% 0% -99.9%
all 50 -99.7% -99.7% 0% 0% -99.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2898.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -99.7% 0% -99.9%
10% ← realistic here -99.7% 0% -99.9%
15% -99.8% 0% -99.9%
20% -99.8% 0% -99.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $407.41 · official $408.06 (match) · 3500 history records