Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:41:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1a4…39f0 crypto 177 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (128 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$121 (+3%) realized +$121 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate69%122W / 55L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day127.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (128 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 177 -6.2% -15.1% 69% 40% -9.1%
≤30d 177 -6.2% -15.1% 69% 40% -9.1%
≤90d 177 -6.2% -15.1% 69% 40% -9.1%
all 177 -6.2% -15.1% 69% 40% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover127.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 40% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 23% -17.8%
15% -30.6% 14% -25.7%
20% -37.4% 11% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$14 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$121
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses122 / 55
Open positions0
Markets (closed)177 / 177
History coverage2d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day127.7
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 177 Trades
no open positions (43 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $8 +$2 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $23 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $29 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $7 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $80 −$80 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $88 −$88 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $93 +$7 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $92 +$8 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $97 +$3 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $92 +$11 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $49 +$3 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $84 +$17 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $49 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $19 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $93 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 23 $47 +$2 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 23 $48 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 23 $84 +$6 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 23 $95 +$4 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $37 +$14 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $43 +$7 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $34 +$5 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $44 +$7 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $44 +$6 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $42 +$8 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $51 −$50 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $56 +$7 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$8 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $38 +$12 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 23 $45 +$5 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 23 $48 +$2 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $46 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $48 +$2 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $17 +$3 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $41 +$9 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $44 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $41 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $37 +$13 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $45 +$5 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $8 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $23 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $16 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $29 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $80 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $88 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $92 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $93 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $92 33m
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $49 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $97 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $6 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $19 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $97 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $93 38m
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $49 38m
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $95 48m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $48 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $47 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $84 48m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $84 53m
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $37 58m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $34 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $43 58m
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $42 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $44 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $44 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $51 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 328 history records