Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:03:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D1 0xd1a1…7beb sports 1143 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (550 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8,146 (+3%) realized +$8,244 · open −$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%1102W / 10L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day549.6pace
Fees−$102est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2,765now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$3,053
other 1% −$76
world 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (550 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1112 +1.0% -8.6% 99% 1% -8.4%
≤30d 1112 +1.0% -8.6% 99% 1% -8.4%
≤90d 1112 +1.0% -8.6% 99% 1% -8.4%
all 1112 +1.0% -8.6% 99% 1% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover549.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 1% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 0% -17.2%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$19 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×17.53 per $1 lost it wins $17.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$2,765
Realized+$8,244
Unrealized−$98
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1102 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$102
Open positions30
Markets (closed)1112 / 1143
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$224
Trades / day549.6
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 1112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Under 99¢ 100¢ $1,584 $1,599 +$15 (+1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 99¢ 100¢ $442 $447 +$4 (+1%)
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Houston Astros 99¢ 100¢ $118 $120 +$1 (+1%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Under 99¢ 96¢ $111 $107 −$4 (-4%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Under 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Athletics winning after 5 innings? Yes 99¢ 50¢ $198 $99 −$99 (-50%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Under 99¢ 94¢ $99 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) Colorado Rockies 99¢ 92¢ $50 $46 −$3 (-7%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Under 97¢ 100¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+3%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Under 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 Under 99¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Over 99¢ 50¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-49%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Colorado Rockies 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Houston Astros 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Under 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Toronto Blue Jays winning after 5 innings? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Boston Red Sox winning after 5 innings? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) Kansas City Royals 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: Tied after 5 innings? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Minnesota Twins winning after 5 innings? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) Colorado Rockies 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Texas Rangers winning after 5 innings? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: Tied after 5 innings? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Houston Astros 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Over 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $54 +$1 +1%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $495 +$5 +1%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $34 $0 +1%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $1,584 +$16 +1%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $114 +$1 +1%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $248 +$3 +1%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo Jun 17 $59 +$1 +1%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Jun 17 $177 +$2 +1%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 17 $124 +$1 +1%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $579 +$6 +1%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $104 +$1 +1%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the game go to extra innings?: New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Colorado Rockies winning after 5 innings? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 17 $135 +$1 +1%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $59 +$1 +1%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $109 +$1 +1%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Jun 17 $110 +$1 +1%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: Tied after 5 innings? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: Tied after 5 innings? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Chicago Cubs winning after 5 innings? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Houston Astros winning after 5 innings? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red S Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5) Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Athletics winning after 5 innings? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 3m
Athletics winning after 5 innings? BUY Yes 99¢ $98 3m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 99¢ $109 3m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $99 3m
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 99¢ $50 3m
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 99¢ $1 4m
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 99¢ $1 4m
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 99¢ $1 4m
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 99¢ $1 4m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1 4m
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 99¢ $1 4m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1 4m
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 99¢ $1 4m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $36 6m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 BUY Under 99¢ $20 6m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1,485 11m
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 99¢ $5 11m
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 99¢ $114 11m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 99¢ $9 11m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $99 11m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 99¢ $5 11m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 99¢ $2 11m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 99¢ $1 11m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $99 11m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 99¢ $2 11m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 99¢ $416 11m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $12 11m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 99¢ $2 11m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 99¢ $2 11m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 99¢ $2 11m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,764.53 · official $2,764.50 (match) · 3500 history records