Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:41:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd19f…8fc6 crypto 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$28 (-5%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -5.6% -14.6% 54% 38% -14.4%
≤30d 13 -5.6% -14.6% 54% 38% -14.4%
≤90d 13 -5.6% -14.6% 54% 38% -14.4%
all 13 -5.6% -14.6% 54% 38% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 38% -14.4%
10% -22.8% 38% -22.6%
15% -30.3% 8% -30.1%
20% -37.1% 8% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$20 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 29 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 29 $47 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 29 $37 +$13 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $47 −$17 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $40 −$15 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 29 $36 +$9 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 29 $38 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 29 $46 −$46 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 29 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 29 $81 −$13 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 29 $22 +$42 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $45 +$13 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 29 $21 −$20 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records