Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:07:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D1 0xd19f…64cc politics 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$309 (+21%) realized +$211 · open +$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +33% what you keep after slip
Net edge+33%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$368per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$44
politics 42% +$144
weather 2% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+38.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +53.2% +38.6% 100% 100% +14.4%
≤30d 2 +53.2% +38.6% 100% 100% +14.4%
≤90d 2 +53.2% +38.6% 100% 100% +14.4%
all 2 +53.2% +38.6% 100% 100% +14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +38.6% 100% +14.4%
10% +25.3% 50% +3.5%
15% +13.2% 50% -6.5%
20% +2.1% 50% -15.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$59 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,113
Realized+$211
Unrealized+$98
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage4d
Avg bet$368
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cristopher Sanchez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? No 74¢ 78¢ $811 $855 +$44 (+5%)
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? No 19¢ 24¢ $204 $258 +$54 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 23 $412 +$90 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 20 $32 +$27 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 23¢ $0 1h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 1h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 23¢ $239 1h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 24¢ $77 1h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 26¢ $179 3h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 18¢ $203 27h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY No 19¢ $211 28h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 19¢ $209 28h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 41¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 41¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 41¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 41¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 41¢ $4 3d
Will Cristopher Sanchez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? BUY No 74¢ $41 3d
Will Cristopher Sanchez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? BUY No 74¢ $777 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 42¢ $12 4d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 41¢ $13 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,113.41 · official $1,113.41 (match) · 18 history records