Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:50:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd197…e31d other 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 496d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate78%82W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$2
crypto 42% −$4
sports 3% $0
economics 1% $0
world 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.5% -9.1% 80% 0% -9.5%
all 105 -1.8% -11.2% 78% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -9.5%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

496d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses82 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)105 / 105
History coverage496d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 105 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $60 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 03 $59 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Apr 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 10 $1,646 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 4? Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 4? Mar 04 $1,640 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 4? Mar 04 $1,498 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $102 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? Mar 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 2? Mar 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on March 3? Mar 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on March 2? Mar 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 04 $1,598 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 2? Mar 02 $12 −$1 -9%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? Mar 02 $57 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 26 $57 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 11 $58 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 16 $12 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 16 $46 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Jan 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Jan 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jan 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on December Dec 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 15 $57 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 08 $57 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 30 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $110,000 on November 19? Nov 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on November Nov 24 $51 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 18 $57 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 15 $57 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 13 $57 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 Nov 06 $57 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? Nov 02 $57 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 25 $57 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 23 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $122,000 and $124,000 on October Oct 17 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,900 on October 14? Oct 15 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,900 on October 13? Oct 14 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,900 on October 12? Oct 13 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $56 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $57 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 02 $56 $0 +1%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 28 $56 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 435–449 times August 22–August 29? Sep 01 $56 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 600–624 times August 15–August 22? Aug 25 $56 $0 +0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 11–18? Aug 04 $56 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 1h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 38d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $60 54d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $60 54d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $59 78d
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,597 112d
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,646 114d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 4? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 114d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 4? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 114d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 4? SELL No 100¢ $1,640 114d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 4? BUY No 100¢ $1,588 114d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 4? SELL No 100¢ $1,284 114d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 4? SELL No 99¢ $101 115d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 4? SELL No 99¢ $130 115d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 4? SELL No 99¢ $82 115d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 4? BUY No 100¢ $52 115d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 4? BUY No 100¢ $102 115d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 4? BUY No 100¢ $1,498 115d
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 116d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 2? SELL No 91¢ $11 116d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 2? BUY No 100¢ $12 116d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 2? BUY No 100¢ $12 116d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on March 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 116d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on March 2? BUY No 100¢ $15 116d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 116d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,598 116d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $57 121d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $57 121d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $57 136d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $58 161d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 255 history records