Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:36:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

D1 0xd196…9d09 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$90 (-25%) realized −$35 · open −$55

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip

Net edge-66%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$91per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 41d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-65.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	1	-24.2%	-31.4%	0%	0%	-31.4%
≤90d	2	-62.1%	-65.7%	0%	0%	-31.7%
all	2	-62.1%	-65.7%	0%	0%	-31.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-65.7%	0%	-31.7%
10%	-69.0%	0%	-38.2%
15%	-72.0%	0%	-44.2%
20%	-74.7%	0%	-49.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -24% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -62% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$26 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage

Net worth$92

Realized−$35

Unrealized−$55

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage41d

Avg bet$91

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-0%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	10¢	4¢	$96	$42	−$55 (-57%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?	May 26	$209	−$50	-24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	May 07	$1	−$1	-96%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$51	1h
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?	SELL Yes	7¢	$74	21d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	BUY Yes	5¢	$1	41d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	BUY Yes	10¢	$101	41d
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?	SELL Yes	8¢	$85	41d
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?	BUY Yes	9¢	$209	41d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.60 · official $91.60 (match) · 6 history records