Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:41:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

D1 0xd194…c51f other 31 markets active 5h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$357 (+6%) realized +$362 · open −$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR41%break-even

Win rate41%12W / 17L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$196per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Fees−$38est.

Kalshi-fit39%portable

Net worth$595now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$226

7 days+$201

14 days+$201

30 days+$201

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +41%

net ROI/market (all)-5.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	29	+4.1%	-5.8%	41%	41%	-6.2%
≤30d	29	+4.1%	-5.8%	41%	41%	-6.2%
≤90d	29	+4.1%	-5.8%	41%	41%	-6.2%
all	29	+4.1%	-5.8%	41%	41%	-6.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-5.8%	41%	-6.2%
10%	-14.8%	41%	-15.2%
15%	-23.1%	41%	-23.4%
20%	-30.6%	38%	-30.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +45% → late -34% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$249 vs −$164 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.07 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$595

Realized+$362

Unrealized−$5

Win rate (resolved)41%

Wins / losses12 / 17

Est. fees paid−$38

Open positions2

Markets (closed)29 / 31

History coverage8d

Avg bet$196

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 29 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	61¢	60¢	$400	$390	−$10 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	Yes	22¢	22¢	$200	$205	+$5 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$408	+$226	+56%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 17	$207	−$207	-100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$207	−$207	-100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 17	$204	−$204	-100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5	Jun 17	$104	−$100	-96%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$206	−$200	-97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$104	−$100	-96%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$102	+$47	+46%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$104	−$100	-96%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 16	$207	−$200	-97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$205	+$234	+114%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$206	−$154	-75%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 16	$103	+$309	+299%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$102	−$49	-47%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 16	$206	−$206	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 16	$310	−$310	-100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	Jun 16	$103	−$103	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 16	$204	−$204	-100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 16	$208	−$208	-100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 16	$102	−$102	-100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$102	+$71	+70%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$204	−$140	-68%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$410	+$358	+88%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$206	+$392	+190%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$206	+$537	+261%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$306	+$161	+52%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 14	$103	+$281	+273%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$205	+$216	+105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 13	$103	+$160	+156%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$207	5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$409	5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$204	28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$204	28h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	0¢	$1	2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	0¢	$43	2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	0¢	$41	2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	0¢	$1	2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	0¢	$1	2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	0¢	$1	2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	0¢	$1	2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	0¢	$0	2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	0¢	$0	2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	0¢	$12	2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	0¢	$1	2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	0¢	$2	2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	0¢	$0	2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$206	2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	2¢	$104	2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	11¢	$104	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	19¢	$207	3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$207	3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	13¢	$207	3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$439	3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	11¢	$52	3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	69¢	$102	3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$412	3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	33¢	$103	3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	30¢	$54	3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	41¢	$206	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $594.71 · official $594.71 (match) · 76 history records