Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:51:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D1 0xd192…dbf7 other 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 621d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$48 (+0%) realized +$48 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate27%17W / 46L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$319per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 66% −$13
politics 19% −$10
other 12% +$7
crypto 2% +$1
sports 1% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 +3.6% -6.3% 33% 8% -8.8%
≤90d 54 +6.9% -3.3% 30% 19% -8.2%
all 63 +5.8% -4.2% 27% 16% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 16% -9.3%
10% -13.4% 16% -18.0%
15% -21.8% 16% -25.9%
20% -29.4% 14% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×3.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

621d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses17 / 46
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)63 / 65
History coverage621d
Avg bet$319
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $93 $93 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $193 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 05 $51 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $27 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 27 $31 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $179 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $13 +$5 +44%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $131 $0 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 18 $8 +$6 +70%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $131 $0 -0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $135 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $130 $0 -0%
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 07 $131 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $134 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $129 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $286 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $141 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $145 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $138 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $138 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $141 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $144 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $137 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $143 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $142 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $142 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $142 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $275 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $140 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $141 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 13 $144 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $6 +$10 +165%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $9 +$7 +83%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $11 +$8 +70%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $13 +$1 +10%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $7 +$10 +146%
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers Apr 06 $23 −$23 -100%
Celtics vs. Hawks Apr 06 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Apr 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 06 $45 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $93 3d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 4d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 4d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $21 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 12d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 12d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $25 13d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $25 14d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 21d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 21d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $31 22d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $31 22d
Will Solana reach $130 in May? BUY No 100¢ $22 23d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $30 23d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 23d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $19 27d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $19 27d
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $36 27d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $51 27d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 28d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 28d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $13 28d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 29d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 29d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $129 31d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $130 31d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $131 31d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $131 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.21 · official $120.21 (match) · 300 history records