Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:50:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

D1 0xd190…2650 sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$231 (-32%) realized −$185 · open −$46

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip

Net edge-57%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%2W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$91per market

Trades / day10.0pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-53.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-48.8%	-53.6%	33%	33%	-46.2%
≤30d	6	-48.8%	-53.6%	33%	33%	-46.2%
≤90d	6	-48.8%	-53.6%	33%	33%	-46.2%
all	6	-48.8%	-53.6%	33%	33%	-46.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-53.6%	33%	-46.2%
10%	-58.1%	17%	-51.3%
15%	-62.1%	17%	-56.0%
20%	-65.8%	17%	-60.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 81% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -40% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -49% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$48 vs −$81 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.29 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$115

Realized−$185

Unrealized−$46

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses2 / 4

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions2

Markets (closed)6 / 8

History coverage1d

Avg bet$91

Trades / day10.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs	Leviatán Esports	70¢	100¢	$80	$115	+$34 (+43%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Aurora Gaming	41¢	0¢	$81	$0	−$81 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$81	+$77	+96%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$160	+$18	+11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$83	−$82	-98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$81	−$80	-98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	Jun 19	$81	−$81	-100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Jun 19	$82	−$82	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Aurora Gaming	41¢	$82	2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London	BUY Leviatán Esports	70¢	$81	8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	51¢	$81	13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	88¢	$79	15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	SELL No	12¢	$88	15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	11¢	$80	16h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	43¢	$83	17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	39¢	$81	21h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	BUY Vitality	69¢	$81	21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BUY G2	24¢	$82	22h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.04 · official $115.04 (match) · 13 history records