Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:31:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D1
0xd18e…5a40
other · 12 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$3 -25%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$7
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)5 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%
Chart Positions 7 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 17¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +113%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 75% −$3
sports 25% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-61.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -57.5% -61.5% 20% 20% -61.0%
≤30d 5 -57.5% -61.5% 20% 20% -61.0%
≤90d 5 -57.5% -61.5% 20% 20% -61.0%
all 5 -57.5% -61.5% 20% 20% -61.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.5% 20% -61.0%
10% -65.2% 20% -64.7%
15% -68.6% 20% -68.2%
20% -71.6% 20% -71.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.80 · official $6.80 (match) · 13 history records