Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:53:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd18a…4b74 crypto 331 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 2d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1522 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$13,043 (+5%) realized +$13,047 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate77%346W / 101L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$727per market
Trades / day1522.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6,810now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$857
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1522 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 447 -16.6% -24.5% 77% 2% -18.8%
≤30d 447 -16.6% -24.5% 77% 2% -18.8%
≤90d 447 -16.6% -24.5% 77% 2% -18.8%
all 447 -16.6% -24.5% 77% 2% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1522.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.5% 2% -18.8%
10% -31.8% 1% -26.6%
15% ← realistic here -38.4% 1% -33.7%
20% -44.4% 1% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$1,250) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$272 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$6,810
Realized+$13,047
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses346 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)447 / 331
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$727
Trades / day1522.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 447 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $112 $108 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $770 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $295 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $117 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $27 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $11 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$15 +2943%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $0 +$1 +117%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $750 −$750 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $750 −$750 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $396 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $396 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $391 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $462 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $22 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $46 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $17 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $275 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $19 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $495 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 9m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,809.51 · official $6,804.47 (match) · 3500 history records