Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:05:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D1 0xd188…c773 weather 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%17W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 89% +$17
finance 11% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 17 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 17 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 17 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 0% -9.1%
10% -17.6% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses17 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage6d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 15? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $211 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $51 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $396 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $235 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 14 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? Jun 14 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $207 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $430 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $238 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $429 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 11 $374 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 9? Jun 10 $357 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $440 6m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $434 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $201 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $182 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $51 23h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $400 24h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $198 25h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $198 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $237 27h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 27h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $177 28h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $67 30h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $117 30h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $37 30h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $97 30h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $14 30h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $101 30h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 32h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 33h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 33h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 33h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 33h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 33h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.11 · official $10.11 (match) · 89 history records