Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:29:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd187…399c crypto 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 704d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,084 (-4%) realized −$1,467 · open +$383
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate44%60W / 75L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$665now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$101
7 days−$101
14 days−$101
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$1,506
other 8% +$2,401
world 6% −$425
politics 6% −$930
sports 3% −$201
culture 1% −$250
tech 0% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -31.2% -37.8% 0% 0% -37.8%
≤30d 1 -31.2% -37.8% 0% 0% -37.8%
≤90d 20 -46.7% -51.7% 15% 15% -19.2%
all 135 -25.8% -32.9% 44% 10% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.9% 10% -22.7%
10% -39.3% 7% -30.1%
15% -45.1% 7% -36.8%
20% -50.5% 7% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -33% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$79 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

704d coverage
Net worth$665
Realized−$1,467
Unrealized+$383
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses60 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)135 / 144
History coverage704d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bryce Eldridge win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Yes 3¢ 15¢ $73 $329 +$256 (+354%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $59 $117 +$57 (+97%)
Will the San Francisco Giants clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? Yes 0¢ 8¢ $0 $84 +$84 (+0%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 65¢ 62¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-48%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $10 $7 −$2 (-25%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $323 −$101 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 13 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 13 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 13 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 08 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 08 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 08 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 08 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 01 $27 −$25 -94%
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies Apr 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 15 $100 −$94 -94%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $160 +$24 +15%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $117 +$457 +392%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 07 $240 −$128 -53%
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? Apr 06 $140 +$24 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 06 $90 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 04 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 04 $400 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 04 $400 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 04 $407 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 04 $400 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 04 $400 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 03 $400 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 03 $400 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Mar 03 $400 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Feb 16 $564 −$564 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Feb 16 $558 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Feb 16 $547 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Feb 16 $531 +$16 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Feb 16 $521 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Feb 16 $516 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Feb 16 $500 +$15 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Feb 16 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Feb 16 $490 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Feb 16 $482 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Feb 16 $472 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Feb 16 $467 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Feb 16 $463 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Feb 16 $453 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Feb 16 $449 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Feb 16 $444 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Feb 16 $440 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Feb 16 $431 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Feb 16 $427 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Feb 16 $422 +$4 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the San Francisco Giants clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason BUY Yes 5¢ $57 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026- BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026- BUY Yes 2¢ $10 10h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes 0¢ $78 10h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $61 9d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 16d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 20d
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 20d
Will Bryce Eldridge win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes 3¢ $64 21d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes 1¢ $63 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $27 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $27 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $27 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $27 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 52d
Will Bryce Eldridge win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 53d
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY San Francisco Giants 4¢ $5 54d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $50 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $100 68d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 69d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 1¢ $120 72d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 91¢ $574 75d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 23¢ $112 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $664.59 · official $663.85 (match) · 634 history records