Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:44:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd187…11ce crypto 243 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$31 (-1%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate15%35W / 198L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 26% −$7
other 22% −$7
politics 17% −$3
world 13% −$3
finance 11% −$2
sports 8% −$13
economics 1% $0
tech 1% −$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -2.4% -11.7% 18% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 43 -1.6% -11.0% 19% 5% -10.5%
≤90d 233 -2.8% -12.0% 15% 1% -10.8%
all 233 -2.8% -12.0% 15% 1% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 1% -10.8%
10% -20.4% 0% -19.3%
15% -28.1% 0% -27.1%
20% -35.2% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses35 / 198
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)233 / 243
History coverage62d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the World Cup? No 93¢ 88¢ $45 $43 −$2 (-5%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $26 $27 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 81¢ 83¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? No 88¢ 88¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? No 83¢ 82¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Ecuador 87¢ 86¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? No 93¢ 92¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 92¢ 93¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 $0 -2%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $35 +$1 +4%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $45 −$1 -2%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 17 $49 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? Jun 16 $20 $0 -2%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 $0 -1%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $9 $0 -2%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $7 −$2 -24%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? Jun 08 $5 $0 -5%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 07 $3 $0 -2%
Will Trump praise Gianni Infantino by June 30? Jun 07 $2 $0 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $8 +$1 +11%
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 07 $6 $0 -2%
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 06 $7 $0 -3%
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Jun 06 $10 +$1 +9%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 06 $2 $0 -3%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Jun 05 $3 $0 -3%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 1 above $435? Jun 04 $9 $0 -4%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $10 $0 -5%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo Jun 04 $6 $0 -2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 04 $8 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $6 $0 -1%
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? Jun 04 $6 $0 -4%
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $7 $0 -7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 03 $3 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 03 $2 $0 -2%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 4? Jun 03 $5 $0 -6%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 02 $3 $0 -5%
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Jun 02 $4 $0 -0%
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $9 $0 -1%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg Jun 01 $5 $0 -2%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 01 $8 $0 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $3 $0 +2%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $4 $0 -3%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? May 31 $4 $0 +11%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 24? May 20 $5 $0 +6%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Federico Cina vs Bernard Tomic May 20 $10 $0 -2%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25? May 18 $1 $0 -13%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? May 18 $9 $0 -4%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? May 17 $36 −$1 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? May 17 $9 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 17 $1 $0 -1%
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30? May 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 21? May 17 $4 $0 -0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in May? May 17 $5 $0 -2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 17? May 16 $6 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 34m
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $7 34m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 88¢ $27 1h
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? SELL No 89¢ $10 2h
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? BUY No 90¢ $10 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 88¢ $12 3h
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $27 3h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 82¢ $26 6h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $15 7h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 88¢ $44 7h
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? SELL No 87¢ $49 7h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $5 7h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 85¢ $30 7h
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $5 8h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? SELL No 87¢ $10 10h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 10h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? BUY No 88¢ $10 11h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 11h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 87¢ $10 13h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $45 14h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? SELL No 87¢ $10 14h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $10 15h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? BUY No 88¢ $10 16h
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 16h
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $25 16h
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? SELL No 86¢ $8 18h
Will Argentina win the World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $45 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.84 · official $177.07 (match) · 812 history records