Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:03:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D1 0xd186…44d1 sports 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$153 (-19%) realized −$151 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$41
14 days+$41
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$215
sports 29% +$56
other 27% +$63
finance 3% −$7
crypto 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +22.6% +10.9% 57% 57% -0.6%
≤30d 7 +22.6% +10.9% 57% 57% -0.6%
≤90d 13 +5.4% -4.6% 62% 54% +0.6%
all 18 -13.5% -21.8% 44% 39% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 39% -22.5%
10% -29.3% 39% -29.9%
15% -36.1% 28% -36.7%
20% -42.4% 22% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$28 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized−$151
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage110d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $105 +$73 +70%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $158 −$60 -38%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $53 +$27 +51%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 +$21 +97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $21 −$15 -70%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 +$31 +149%
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026? Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B Mar 19 $24 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 26? Mar 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Liquid - Map 1 Winner Mar 19 $28 +$10 +35%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP - Map 2 Winner Mar 19 $20 +$10 +49%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 19 $17 +$4 +26%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 17 $20 −$7 -35%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 15 $2 $0 -5%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $10 −$9 -86%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $99 −$95 -96%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $50 −$46 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 5m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $105 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $99 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $53 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $105 46h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $105 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $53 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $21 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $21 4d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A BUY FaZe 64¢ $36 88d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Liquid - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 74¢ $28 88d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP - Map 2 Winner SELL NIP 100¢ $30 88d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B BUY NIP 47¢ $4 88d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP - Map 2 Winner BUY NIP 67¢ $20 88d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B SELL PARIVISION 78¢ $24 88d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B BUY PARIVISION 64¢ $20 89d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? SELL No 78¢ $21 89d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? BUY No 62¢ $17 89d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? SELL Yes 29¢ $13 90d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 93d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 94d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 94d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL No $1 107d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No $10 107d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL No $4 107d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? SELL No $4 107d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $99 108d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 26? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.44 · official $118.44 (match) · 41 history records