Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:24:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd186…c3ad other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$37 (-9%) realized −$49 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$45
14 days−$51
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$17
world 24% −$66
sports 17% −$18
crypto 8% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-41.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.3% -10.7% 57% 57% -28.4%
≤30d 16 -34.7% -41.0% 38% 38% -25.4%
≤90d 16 -34.7% -41.0% 38% 38% -25.4%
all 16 -34.7% -41.0% 38% 38% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.0% 38% -25.4%
10% -46.6% 38% -32.5%
15% -51.8% 31% -39.0%
20% -56.5% 25% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -82% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$13 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)16 / 20
History coverage9d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $60 $73 +$13 (+22%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $21 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $15 +$5 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$11 +73%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$13 +65%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $21 −$21 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $32 +$28 +86%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $99 −$66 -67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $9 +$10 +109%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$15 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 1h
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 10h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $21 10h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $15 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 26h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $21 4d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $20 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $15 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $22 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $11 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $21 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $11 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $11 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $13 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $71 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $4 6d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 8d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 8d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 8d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 8d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 8d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $62 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.54 · official $133.54 (match) · 41 history records