Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:55:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D1 0xd183…3167 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+4%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$9
other 39% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +7.7% -2.5% 75% 62% +11.8%
≤30d 8 +7.7% -2.5% 75% 62% +11.8%
≤90d 8 +7.7% -2.5% 75% 62% +11.8%
all 8 +7.7% -2.5% 75% 62% +11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 62% +11.8%
10% -11.9% 62% +1.1%
15% -20.4% 38% -8.7%
20% -28.2% 38% -17.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.74 per $1 lost it wins $2.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 +$4 +67%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $31 +$10 +33%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 +$1 +29%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $9 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $41 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $5 5h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $31 6h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $5 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 36h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 36h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 36h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $5 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records