Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:49:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D1 0xd183…b9c8 other 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 582d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$51 (+2%) realized +$52 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate71%80W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$61
sports 32% −$48
finance 3% +$40
world 2% −$3
crypto 1% −$2
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +6.4% -3.7% 100% 0% -3.8%
≤30d 15 +7.9% -2.4% 100% 20% -2.7%
≤90d 34 -2.6% -11.8% 88% 32% -2.2%
all 113 -0.1% -9.6% 71% 35% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 35% -7.7%
10% -18.3% 22% -16.5%
15% -26.2% 19% -24.6%
20% -33.4% 16% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

582d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized+$52
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses80 / 33
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)113 / 119
History coverage582d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? No 95¢ 94¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 94¢ 94¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? No 87¢ 86¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? No 85¢ 84¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? No 88¢ 87¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $23 +$2 +7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands Jun 17 $25 +$2 +6%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $23 +$2 +7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $25 +$2 +7%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $22 +$1 +6%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Coritiba FBC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Club Independiente Petrolero win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $16 $0 +3%
Will Cusco FC win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $35 +$1 +4%
Will Club Always Ready win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $16 +$2 +11%
Will CA Boston River win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $16 +$1 +5%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-17? May 25 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-17? May 25 $24 +$3 +12%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-05-16? May 25 $30 +$3 +10%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16? May 25 $50 +$3 +5%
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Antalyaspor win on 2026-05-09? May 15 $35 +$1 +4%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-05-09? May 15 $35 +$3 +10%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-10? May 15 $35 +$4 +11%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-05-10? May 15 $38 +$2 +5%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-05-02? May 08 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-02? May 08 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-05-03? May 08 $40 +$2 +6%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-03? May 08 $40 +$2 +6%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-25? May 01 $26 +$4 +18%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-04-17? Apr 24 $34 +$6 +16%
Will Gençlerbirliği SK win on 2026-04-18? Apr 24 $35 +$5 +14%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? Apr 17 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-08-31? Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Eagles vs. Giants Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Florida Gators Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-03-30? Apr 08 $123 +$6 +4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 31? Mar 31 $81 +$40 +50%
Will SBV Excelsior win on 2026-03-15? Mar 30 $74 +$8 +11%
BNP Paribas Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Jannik Sinner Mar 15 $70 +$4 +5%
Men's Round of 16 - Sweden vs. Latvia Mar 08 $31 +$3 +10%
Magic vs. Kings Mar 08 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 20 Feb 17 $31 $0 +0%
Women's Group B - Germany vs. France Feb 16 $57 +$4 +6%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-02-07? Feb 08 $55 +$2 +4%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-02-01? Feb 02 $50 +$4 +9%
Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2026-01-21? Jan 27 $48 +$2 +4%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 21 $45 +$3 +8%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-01-14? Jan 15 $41 +$4 +9%
Will Dundee United FC win on 2026-01-10? Jan 14 $57 +$2 +3%
76ers vs. Thunder Dec 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Cardinals vs. Bengals Dec 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Celtics vs. Trail Blazers Dec 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Pistons vs. Clippers Dec 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will FC København win on 2025-11-04? Dec 28 $10 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 88¢ $2 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 87¢ $20 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 94¢ $40 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $40 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 85¢ $20 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $23 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $23 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $22 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY India 94¢ $25 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 93¢ $25 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY England 96¢ $25 5d
Will Coritiba FBC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 91¢ $20 28d
Will Cusco FC win on 2026-05-26? BUY No 96¢ $35 28d
Will Club Always Ready win on 2026-05-26? BUY No 90¢ $16 28d
Will Club Independiente Petrolero win on 2026-05-27? BUY No 97¢ $16 28d
Will CA Boston River win on 2026-05-26? BUY No 95¢ $16 28d
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 89¢ $24 37d
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 90¢ $30 37d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 82¢ $20 37d
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-05-16? BUY No 91¢ $30 37d
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16? BUY No 95¢ $50 37d
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 95¢ $38 44d
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-05-09? BUY No 91¢ $35 44d
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 90¢ $35 44d
Will Antalyaspor win on 2026-05-09? BUY No 96¢ $35 44d
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY No 94¢ $40 51d
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-05-03? BUY No 94¢ $40 51d
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-05-02? BUY No 85¢ $20 51d
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY No 89¢ $30 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.16 · official $151.16 (match) · 247 history records