trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox | 50¢ | 48¢ | $100 | $97 | −$3 (-3%) |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 78¢ | 81¢ | $78 | $81 | +$3 (+4%) |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | Yes | 7¢ | 4¢ | $14 | $8 | −$6 (-46%) |
| Timberwolves vs. Bucks | Bucks | 53¢ | 0¢ | $530 | $0 | −$530 (-100%) |
| Bucks vs. Lakers | Lakers | 49¢ | 0¢ | $490 | $0 | −$490 (-100%) |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles | Seattle Mariners | 5¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Rockets vs. Trail Blazers | Rockets | 67¢ | 0¢ | $670 | $0 | −$670 (-100%) |
| Panthers vs. Buccaneers | Panthers | 42¢ | 0¢ | $210 | $0 | −$210 (-100%) |
| Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-01-02? | Yes | 48¢ | 0¢ | $240 | $0 | −$240 (-100%) |
| Rockets vs. Mavericks | Rockets | 75¢ | 0¢ | $750 | $0 | −$750 (-100%) |
| Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers | Timberwolves | 40¢ | 0¢ | $400 | $0 | −$400 (-100%) |
| Bucks vs. Hornets | Hornets | 42¢ | 0¢ | $420 | $0 | −$420 (-100%) |
| Bruins vs. Kraken | Bruins | 53¢ | 0¢ | $530 | $0 | −$530 (-100%) |
| Timberwolves vs. Heat | Heat | 44¢ | 0¢ | $220 | $0 | −$220 (-100%) |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-30? | Yes | 64¢ | 0¢ | $320 | $0 | −$320 (-100%) |
| Hawks vs. Lakers | Hawks | 44¢ | 0¢ | $220 | $0 | −$220 (-100%) |
| Ducks vs. Flyers | Ducks | 42¢ | 0¢ | $420 | $0 | −$420 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET | Up | 1¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? | No | 4¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Mavericks vs. Kings | Mavericks | 58¢ | 0¢ | $290 | $0 | −$290 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET | Up | 35¢ | 0¢ | $7 | $0 | −$7 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET | Jun 13 | $1 | $0 | +14% |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles | Jun 11 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET | Jun 07 | $1 | −$1 | -57% |
| Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire | May 30 | $10 | +$1 | +10% |
| Little Rock: Fajing Sun vs Jay Dylan Friend | May 30 | $26 | +$24 | +90% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET | May 22 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET | May 22 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | May 20 | $207 | +$78 | +38% |
| Celtics vs. Hawks | Apr 01 | $122 | +$106 | +87% |
| Kings vs. Celtics | Mar 15 | $82 | +$18 | +22% |
| Magic vs. Cavaliers | Jan 30 | $13 | +$7 | +52% |
| Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? | Jan 26 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15? | Jan 15 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Wizards vs. Clippers | Jan 15 | $810 | +$190 | +24% |
| Nuggets vs. Pelicans | Jan 14 | $1,110 | +$440 | +40% |
| Hawks vs. Lakers | Jan 14 | $220 | −$220 | -100% |
| Timberwolves vs. Bucks | Jan 14 | $530 | −$530 | -100% |
| 76ers vs. Raptors | Jan 13 | $624 | +$476 | +76% |
| Nets vs. Mavericks | Jan 13 | $92 | +$8 | +9% |
| 76ers vs. Raptors | Jan 12 | $450 | +$550 | +122% |
| Knicks vs. Trail Blazers | Jan 12 | $670 | +$330 | +49% |
| Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-01-10? | Jan 11 | $110 | +$390 | +354% |
| Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers | Jan 10 | $1,000 | −$400 | -40% |
| Hobart International, Qualification: Darja Semenistaja vs Moyuka Uchij | Jan 10 | $175 | +$325 | +186% |
| Rockets vs. Trail Blazers | Jan 10 | $670 | −$670 | -100% |
| Bucks vs. Lakers | Jan 10 | $490 | −$490 | -100% |
| Brisbane International: Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk | Jan 10 | $808 | +$192 | +24% |
| Miami vs. Ole Miss | Jan 09 | $1,158 | +$642 | +55% |
| Bulls vs. Pistons | Jan 09 | $800 | +$200 | +25% |
| Nuggets vs. Celtics | Jan 07 | $76 | $0 | +0% |
| Bruins vs. Kraken | Jan 07 | $530 | −$530 | -100% |
| Will US Lecce win on 2026-01-06? | Jan 07 | $166 | +$34 | +20% |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | Jan 06 | $480 | +$520 | +108% |
| Ducks vs. Flyers | Jan 06 | $420 | −$420 | -100% |
| Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-01-05? | Jan 06 | $324 | +$576 | +178% |
| Packers vs. Vikings | Jan 05 | $810 | +$190 | +24% |
| Nuggets vs. Nets | Jan 05 | $126 | +$174 | +138% |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | Jan 04 | $86 | +$114 | +133% |
| Panthers vs. Buccaneers | Jan 03 | $210 | −$210 | -100% |
| Timberwolves vs. Heat | Jan 03 | $220 | −$220 | -100% |
| Rockets vs. Mavericks | Jan 03 | $750 | −$750 | -100% |
| Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State | Jan 03 | $198 | +$102 | +52% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans | Jan 03 | $740 | +$260 | +35% |
| Spurs vs. Pacers | Jan 03 | $690 | +$301 | +44% |
| Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-01-02? | Jan 02 | $240 | −$240 | -100% |
| Kings vs. Clippers | Dec 31 | $780 | +$220 | +28% |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-30? | Dec 30 | $320 | −$320 | -100% |
| Bucks vs. Hornets | Dec 29 | $420 | −$420 | -100% |
| 76ers vs. Thunder | Dec 29 | $352 | +$48 | +14% |
| Mavericks vs. Kings | Dec 27 | $290 | −$290 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -47.8% | -52.7% | 33% | 33% | -79.5% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -25.8% | -32.9% | 50% | 38% | +21.5% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -13.3% | -21.5% | 56% | 44% | +36.9% |
| all | 50 | +1.8% | -7.9% | 58% | 54% | -5.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.9% | 54% | -5.5% |
| 10% | -16.7% | 46% | -14.6% |
| 15% | -24.7% | 34% | -22.8% |
| 20% | -32.1% | 26% | -30.4% |