Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:35:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D1
0xd17a…ffca
sports · 346 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,149 -35%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,152 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$53
Realized−$2,152
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses137 / 201
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions8
Markets (closed)338 / 346
History coverage41d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 8 History 338 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$22
14 days−$3,777
30 days−$2,550
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? No 45¢ 48¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Under 47¢ 89¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+89%)
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? No 24¢ 22¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Golden State Valkyries 83¢ 93¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Hurricanes 51¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Under 57¢ 40¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $5 +$7 +131%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$7 +69%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 5? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Apple announce a HomePod mini successor during the WWDC 2026 keyn Jun 09 $5 +$4 +78%
Will Michele Sodano win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? Jun 08 $5 +$6 +113%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 06 $5 +$6 +114%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 06 $5 +$3 +67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $5 +$4 +77%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Swapped" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Hellas Verona FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down on May 14? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-14? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-14? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. Al Riyadh Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 14? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 11? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Dallas Wings Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will El Gouna SC win on 2026-05-12? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12 Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 11? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Rosenborg BK vs. Aalesunds FK: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-11? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Club Always Ready vs. Mirassol FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-05-17? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CD Mirandés win on 2026-05-16? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 14? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Casa Pia AC vs. Rio Ave FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $15 −$7 -48%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 14? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 14? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 46% −$892
sports 36% −$1,040
crypto 12% −$192
finance 2% −$63
world 1% +$36
politics 1% −$17
tech 1% +$30
culture 0% −$4
weather 0% −$5
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm BUY Golden State Valkyries 83¢ $5 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 47¢ $5 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 43¢ $5 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 2h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 2h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 48¢ $5 2h
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 52¢ $5 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 59¢ $5 8h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 58¢ $5 8h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $5 28h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $5 7d
Will Apple announce a HomePod mini successor during the WWDC 2026 keyn BUY No 55¢ $5 7d
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of BUY Carolina Royal Ravens 42¢ $5 7d
Will Michele Sodano win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 7d
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire BUY Phoenix Mercury 46¢ $5 7d
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Dallas Wings 59¢ $5 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 5? BUY No 58¢ $5 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 8d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 54¢ $5 9d
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 13d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $407 13d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $408 13d
Will Vaibhav Sooryavanshi win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap? BUY Yes 53¢ $9 13d
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 13d
Will AD Tarma win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 13d
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 13d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 13d
Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +26.3% +14.3% 64% 64% +16.8%
≤30d 316 -9.2% -17.8% 38% 38% -55.7%
≤90d 338 -2.2% -11.5% 41% 41% -41.7%
all 338 -2.2% -11.5% 41% 41% -41.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 41% -41.7%
10% -20.0% 41% -47.3%
15% -27.7% 40% -52.4%
20% -34.8% 40% -57.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.95 · official $52.00 (match) · 700 history records