Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:23:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D1
0xd17a…f0d6
other · 127 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$5 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses51 / 76
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)127 / 127
History coverage464d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 0 History 127 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? No 94¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? No 96¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $192 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $31 −$1 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $110 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $103 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $70 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $68 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $38 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $1 $0 -20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $33 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $33 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 29 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $69 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $65 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $2 $0 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $34 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $35 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 10 $35 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 08 $35 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $73 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $72 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $111 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $69 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $49 +$2 +4%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $5 −$2 -42%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $72 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $68 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $42 +$1 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $56 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $34 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $34 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $104 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $111 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $69 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $34 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 08 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $34 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 07 $70 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 28% +$6
world 25% −$1
politics 22% −$1
sports 16% −$8
crypto 4% −$2
economics 4% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 37m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 37m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 37m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 26¢ $36 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 26¢ $2 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 26¢ $37 25h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 32¢ $27 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 32¢ $4 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $1 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $30 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $20 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $15 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 99¢ $35 4d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $38 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $38 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $38 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $38 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $25 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $34 9d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $34 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $35 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.6% -10.0% 17% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 21 -4.8% -13.9% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 74 -1.8% -11.1% 36% 0% -9.5%
all 127 +1.0% -8.6% 40% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 2% -9.6%
10% -17.4% 2% -18.3%
15% -25.3% 2% -26.2%
20% -32.7% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.46 · official $0.00 · 474 history records