Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:38:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd17a…0373 sports 1365 markets active 0h ago coverage 108d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 107d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,722 (+2%) realized +$1,723 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%597W / 773L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day26.7pace
Fees−$1,215est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$257now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,307
7 days−$1,429
14 days−$1,149
30 days−$1,552
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,365
other 0% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -41.0% -46.6% 26% 26% -55.1%
≤30d 283 -8.9% -17.6% 41% 41% -18.2%
≤90d 955 -1.6% -11.0% 45% 44% -10.8%
all 1370 -1.0% -10.4% 44% 43% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 43% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 43% -18.1%
15% -26.8% 43% -26.1%
20% -34.0% 42% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$55 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$257
Realized+$1,723
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses597 / 773
Est. fees paid−$1,215
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1370 / 1365
History coverage108d ⚠
Avg bet$79
Trades / day26.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1370 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Over 56¢ 72¢ $39 $51 +$12 (+29%)
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 58¢ 60¢ $41 $42 +$1 (+3%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 166.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $36 $37 +$0 (+1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ 52¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 59¢ 50¢ $38 $33 −$6 (-14%)
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 167.5 Under 53¢ 42¢ $37 $29 −$8 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 493 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Naji Marshall: Points O/U 19.5 Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Avalanche vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Howard Bison vs. Morgan State Bears: O/U 156.5 Jun 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Jun 19 $61 −$61 -100%
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 141.5 Jun 19 $59 −$59 -100%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 19 $77 −$77 -100%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Points O/U 19.5 Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Red Wings vs. Predators: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $68 −$68 -100%
Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $43 −$43 -100%
Valorant: T1 vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stage Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
IU Indy Jaguars vs. Cleveland State Vikings Jun 19 $73 −$73 -100%
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Georgia Bulldogs Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: Northern Iowa Panthers (-4.5) Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs. Incarnate Word Cardinals: O/U 143.5 Jun 19 $47 −$47 -100%
Montana State Bobcats vs. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks: O/U 142.5 Jun 19 $81 −$81 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 227.5 Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Spread: Florida State Seminoles (-6.5) Jun 19 $60 −$60 -100%
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Victoria Jimene Jun 19 $71 −$71 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-4.5) Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Army Black Knights vs. Bucknell Bison Jun 19 $44 −$44 -100%
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 215.5 Jun 19 $78 −$78 -100%
Will FC Dallas win on 2026-02-28? Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs WHITEBIRD (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Gro Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Pelicans (-5.5) Jun 19 $70 −$70 -100%
Eastern Michigan Eagles vs. Buffalo Bulls Jun 19 $66 −$66 -100%
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Tristan Schoolkate vs Elias Ymer Jun 19 $55 −$55 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $36 −$2 -7%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 19 $36 −$2 -5%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $39 +$26 +65%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $24 +$36 +152%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 Jun 18 $34 −$34 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $36 +$29 +79%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-2.5) Jun 18 $36 +$34 +92%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $32 +$33 +105%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 Jun 18 $40 −$40 -99%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 17 $36 −$35 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $34 −$34 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $61 +$31 +51%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $32 +$28 +90%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $27 +$33 +119%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $35 −$34 -99%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $31 −$1 -4%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 Jun 17 $66 −$6 -9%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 169.5 Jun 17 $31 −$1 -4%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 Jun 17 $18 −$2 -9%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $10 +$11 +113%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $43 +$38 +90%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $40 +$35 +86%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $38 +$32 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 46¢ $32 7m
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 56¢ $40 29m
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 52¢ $33 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Boston Red Sox 49¢ $34 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 50¢ $36 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 59¢ $39 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 55¢ $25 8h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 55¢ $11 8h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 167.5 BUY Under 53¢ $11 13h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 167.5 BUY Under 53¢ $26 13h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 58¢ $4 17h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 166.5 BUY Under 52¢ $36 20h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 58¢ $2 21h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ $35 22h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 BUY Under 52¢ $34 24h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 39¢ $24 24h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 58¢ $35 24h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 60¢ $39 25h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Under 53¢ $40 47h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 55¢ $36 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 48¢ $32 2d
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 54¢ $36 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 52¢ $34 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $35 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 52¢ $32 2d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 46¢ $28 2d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 54¢ $32 2d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 54¢ $33 2d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL New York Mets 55¢ $30 2d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 56¢ $31 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $257.00 · official $257.00 (match) · 3500 history records