Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:14:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd179…eab7 crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 546d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$426 (-24%) realized −$436 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$411
politics 38% $0
other 2% −$1
sports 1% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-37.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -25.7% -32.7% 33% 33% -8.7%
≤30d 3 -25.7% -32.7% 33% 33% -8.7%
≤90d 6 -44.1% -49.4% 33% 33% -11.9%
all 26 -31.3% -37.9% 46% 19% -31.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.9% 19% -31.6%
10% -43.8% 15% -38.1%
15% -49.3% 12% -44.1%
20% -54.2% 12% -49.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 63% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$44 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

546d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$436
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage546d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 52¢ 76¢ $25 $36 +$11 (+46%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Down 50¢ 48¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $116 −$9 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$12 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 3AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 03 $3 −$3 -98%
Zhejiang Golden Bulls vs. Jilin Northeast Tigers Apr 28 $15 +$2 +12%
XRP Up or Down - February 3, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Feb 03 $70 +$59 +85%
Solana Up or Down - February 3, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 03 $70 −$69 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 03 $70 +$56 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 03 $70 −$69 -98%
XRP Up or Down - February 3, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 03 $70 −$69 -98%
XRP Up or Down - February 3, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 03 $70 −$69 -98%
XRP Up or Down - February 3, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 03 $70 +$60 +86%
Solana Up or Down - February 3, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 03 $70 −$69 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 3, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 03 $70 −$69 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 03 $70 −$69 -98%
Will CDA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands? Feb 03 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Dec 15 $111 −$111 -100%
Will the U.S. House of Representatives session be announced by Novembe Nov 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Robinhood say "Expense" during earnings call? Nov 11 $12 $0 +0%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Nov 05 $13 −$1 -11%
Will Micron Tech (MU) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? Oct 17 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in the Sep 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Apr 17 $9 $0 +5%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 17 $2 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 26 $667 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $4 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $8 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $4 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $6 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $8 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $28 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $49 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $38 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $52 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.19 · official $64.00 · 101 history records