Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:36:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd178…6703 other 311 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 120d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$221,396 (-30%) realized −$221,503 · open +$107
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%170W / 281L
Whale WR35%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,381per market
Trades / day27.5pace
Fees−$420est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$2,709now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 121d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$18,373
sports 22% −$23,499
crypto 16% −$11,521
world 1% +$3,834
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 160 -89.3% -90.3% 6% 6% -96.9%
≤30d 193 -68.2% -71.2% 15% 13% -91.5%
≤90d 324 -38.2% -44.1% 32% 30% -73.1%
all 451 -24.7% -31.8% 38% 33% -56.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.8% 33% -56.7%
10% -38.4% 28% -60.9%
15% ← realistic here -44.3% 21% -64.7%
20% -49.8% 16% -68.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 35% (≥$3,526) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,268 vs −$3,434 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$2,709
Realized−$221,503
Unrealized+$107
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses170 / 281
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$420
Open positions4
Markets (closed)451 / 311
History coverage121d ⚠
Avg bet$2,381
Trades / day27.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 451 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1,220 $1,175 −$45 (-4%)
Valorant: X-CAST vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season X-CAST 78¢ 100¢ $557 $710 +$153 (+28%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $570 $565 −$5 (-1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $256 $259 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 268 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2025-12-21? Jun 18 $805 −$805 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2025-12-19? Jun 18 $1,536 −$1,536 -100%
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Moyuka Uchijima vs Emiliana Arango Jun 18 $2,573 −$2,573 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11? Jun 18 $4,500 −$4,500 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-20? Jun 18 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? Jun 18 $4,989 −$4,989 -100%
Nets vs. 76ers Jun 18 $5,258 −$5,258 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-21? Jun 18 $814 −$814 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-12? Jun 18 $1,490 −$1,490 -100%
FIFA Club World Cup: Manchester City vs. Al Hilal (To Advance) Jun 18 $1,925 −$1,925 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Jun 18 $280 −$280 -100%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2025-12-30? Jun 18 $3,503 −$3,503 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-23? Jun 18 $1,040 −$1,040 -100%
Will Napoli win on 2025-09-18? Jun 18 $570 −$570 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-14? Jun 18 $1,920 −$1,920 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 18 $2,521 −$2,521 -100%
Will West Ham win on 2025-10-24? Jun 18 $4,126 −$4,126 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $485 −$485 -100%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2025-12-21? Jun 18 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-01? Jun 18 $9,230 −$9,230 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) Jun 18 $921 −$921 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-02-06? Jun 18 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? Jun 18 $7,807 −$7,807 -100%
Dodgers vs. Rays Jun 18 $4,364 −$4,364 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2025-11-15? Jun 18 $1,002 −$1,002 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-12-14? Jun 18 $429 −$429 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-11? Jun 18 $3,079 −$3,079 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Kairat Almaty win on 2025-09-18? Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5) Jun 18 $846 −$846 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Jun 18 $10,940 −$10,940 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-10-23? Jun 18 $18,294 −$18,294 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Jun 18 $830 −$830 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-07? Jun 18 $3,420 −$3,420 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Jun 18 $14,843 −$14,843 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2025-08-29? Jun 18 $1,589 −$1,589 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-02? Jun 18 $6,443 −$6,443 -100%
Will Konyaspor win on 2025-11-24? Jun 18 $7,482 −$7,482 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 18 $1,345 −$1,345 -100%
Will Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? Jun 18 $962 −$962 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-06? Jun 18 $8,469 −$8,469 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-23? Jun 18 $9,999 −$9,999 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-23? Jun 18 $13,195 −$13,195 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-27? Jun 18 $14,189 −$14,189 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? Jun 18 $5,443 −$5,443 -100%
Will Celtic win on 2025-08-26? Jun 18 $4,402 −$4,402 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-08? Jun 18 $13,200 −$13,200 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-02-06? Jun 18 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Norway win on 2025-11-16? Jun 18 $13,485 −$13,485 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-11? Jun 18 $4,966 −$4,966 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,220 43m
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 94¢ $188 1h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 95¢ $307 1h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 95¢ $475 1h
Valorant: X-CAST vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY X-CAST 82¢ $79 1h
Valorant: X-CAST vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY X-CAST 81¢ $137 1h
Valorant: X-CAST vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY X-CAST 79¢ $59 1h
Valorant: X-CAST vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY X-CAST 78¢ $55 1h
Valorant: X-CAST vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY X-CAST 77¢ $4 1h
Valorant: X-CAST vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY X-CAST 77¢ $50 1h
Valorant: X-CAST vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY X-CAST 77¢ $4 1h
Valorant: X-CAST vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY X-CAST 76¢ $47 1h
Valorant: X-CAST vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY X-CAST 77¢ $6 1h
Valorant: X-CAST vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY X-CAST 75¢ $121 2h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $257 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 4¢ $103 7h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $883 10h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag SELL Team Evictix 100¢ $360 10h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 65¢ $420 12h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 65¢ $9 12h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 65¢ $19 12h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 65¢ $9 12h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 65¢ $93 12h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 65¢ $650 12h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 65¢ $3 12h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 65¢ $279 12h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 65¢ $18 12h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 65¢ $14 12h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 65¢ $9 12h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 65¢ $93 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,709.34 · official $2,809.34 · 3500 history records