Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:08:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd175…78ff crypto 266 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (101 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$61 (-3%) realized −$66 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%128W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day101.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$251
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (101 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 262 -8.5% -17.2% 49% 49% -21.7%
≤30d 262 -8.5% -17.2% 49% 49% -21.7%
≤90d 262 -8.5% -17.2% 49% 49% -21.7%
all 262 -8.5% -17.2% 49% 49% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover101.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 49% -21.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 49% -29.1%
15% -32.4% 49% -36.0%
20% -39.0% 49% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses128 / 134
Open positions4
Markets (closed)262 / 266
History coverage3d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day101.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 262 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Up 59¢ 100¢ $35 $60 +$25 (+69%)
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Down 60¢ 68¢ $36 $40 +$4 (+12%)
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET Down 56¢ 42¢ $33 $25 −$8 (-24%)
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Up 60¢ 32¢ $36 $20 −$16 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 132 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $36 −$35 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $36 −$35 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$24 +68%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $35 −$34 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$24 +67%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $35 −$34 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $36 −$36 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET Jun 22 $34 +$26 +77%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET Jun 22 $34 −$34 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$24 +67%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$25 +70%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$24 +67%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $35 −$34 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$24 +68%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$4 +76%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$4 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$6 +134%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$6 +129%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$4 +73%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$4 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$1 -9%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$6 +124%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +86%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +112%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $36 8m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $34 8m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $8 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $36 38m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 53m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 53m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $13 53m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $9 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $24 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $35 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $36 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $9 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $9 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $15 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $19 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $7 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $36 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $35 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $17 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $9 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.97 · official $161.17 · 446 history records