Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:58:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

D1 0xd174…6857 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip

Net edge-3%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$33per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+0.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+11.2%	+0.6%	67%	67%	-25.9%
≤30d	3	+11.2%	+0.6%	67%	67%	-25.9%
≤90d	3	+11.2%	+0.6%	67%	67%	-25.9%
all	3	+11.2%	+0.6%	67%	67%	-25.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+0.6%	67%	-25.9%
10%	-9.0%	33%	-33.0%
15%	-17.8%	33%	-39.5%
20%	-25.9%	33%	-45.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 72% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -18% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +11% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$6 vs −$27 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.46 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$50

Realized+$0

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$33

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	64¢	64¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$30	+$4	+12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5	Jun 20	$40	−$27	-68%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals	Jun 20	$10	+$9	+89%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$51	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$34	1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5	SELL Over	27¢	$13	1h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals	SELL Yes	100¢	$19	2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5	BUY Over	81¢	$40	2h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	52¢	$10	8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$30	8h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.61 · official $49.61 (match) · 7 history records