Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:28:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd172…f4bd politics 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 656d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-1%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%5W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$273per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$305now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$31
politics 14% −$8
sports 11% $0
world 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-39.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
all 28 -32.6% -39.0% 18% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.0% 0% -10.0%
10% -44.8% 0% -18.6%
15% -50.2% 0% -26.5%
20% -55.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -65% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

656d coverage
Net worth$305
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses5 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage656d
Avg bet$273
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $305 $305 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Liverpool finish first in UCL league phase? Apr 22 $290 $0 -0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-08-18? Apr 22 $53 $0 +0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $290 $0 +0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 20 $290 $0 -0%
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? Jan 15 $0 $0 +0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 11 $107 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 15 $107 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 18 $10 $0 -0%
Tigers vs. Rays Aug 18 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series? Jun 21 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will Everton win on 2024-12-07? Feb 02 $57 $0 +0%
Aston Villa wins the Premier League? Feb 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will Elizabeth Warren win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential El Feb 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AOC win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Feb 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Elec Feb 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Biden wins the Popular Vote? Feb 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Feb 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chris Christie win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Elec Feb 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024? Feb 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will another movie gross most in 2024? Jan 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Ele Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024? Nov 14 $5,020 −$5 -0%
Will Kanye West win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election Nov 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kamala Harris drop out in August? Sep 13 $800 +$1 +0%
Will the Vikings win Super Bowl 2025? Aug 28 $200 −$25 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $305 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $304 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $305 53d
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $290 109d
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $290 122d
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $290 145d
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $290 150d
Will Liverpool finish first in UCL league phase? SELL No 100¢ $23 180d
Will Liverpool finish first in UCL league phase? SELL No 100¢ $98 180d
Will Liverpool finish first in UCL league phase? SELL No 100¢ $97 180d
Will Liverpool finish first in UCL league phase? SELL No 100¢ $73 180d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $107 185d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $107 211d
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $107 211d
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $107 237d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 300d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 300d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $9 358d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $9 358d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $9 423d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $9 423d
Aston Villa wins the Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $11 497d
Aston Villa wins the Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $11 497d
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $2 509d
Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024? BUY No 100¢ $3 554d
Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024? SELL No 100¢ $335 578d
Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024? BUY No 100¢ $335 578d
Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024? SELL No 100¢ $334 578d
Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024? BUY No 100¢ $334 578d
Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024? SELL No 100¢ $333 578d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $304.85 · official $304.85 (match) · 145 history records