Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:44:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D1 0xd16b…36c0 sports 234 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$767 (+2%) realized +$787 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate63%138W / 80L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$252est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,684now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$269
7 days−$87
14 days+$1,013
30 days+$732
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$18
tech 14% +$178
other 12% +$43
politics 2% +$44
crypto 2% +$6
world 1% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -10.3% -18.8% 59% 49% -9.9%
≤30d 205 -6.3% -15.2% 64% 53% -6.5%
≤90d 218 -8.5% -17.2% 63% 52% -7.5%
all 218 -8.5% -17.2% 63% 52% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 52% -7.5%
10% -25.1% 35% -16.4%
15% -32.4% 23% -24.4%
20% -39.0% 11% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$63 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$1,684
Realized+$787
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses138 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$252
Open positions16
Markets (closed)218 / 234
History coverage102d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 218 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $717 $723 +$6 (+1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $250 $255 +$5 (+2%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Karmine Corp 90¢ 84¢ $200 $187 −$13 (-7%)
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 63¢ 58¢ $150 $139 −$11 (-7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-11%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner T1 91¢ 88¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 62¢ 59¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Yes 31¢ 34¢ $22 $23 +$2 (+8%)
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 42¢ 32¢ $21 $16 −$5 (-24%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner T1 Academy 59¢ 54¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,005 +$13 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $149 +$20 +13%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -35%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 +$10 +33%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -18%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $162 −$158 -97%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $63 −$63 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $25 +$22 +88%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 15 $92 −$27 -29%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $66 −$28 -42%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$8 +262%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$13 -63%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,001 +$3 +0%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $1,680 +$153 +9%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $367 +$109 +30%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $100 +$10 +10%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $251 +$68 +27%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $111 +$54 +49%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $25 +$11 +43%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $50 +$10 +20%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $25 +$6 +24%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 14 $151 +$54 +36%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $353 +$159 +45%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $25 +$15 +59%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $180 −$179 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $85 −$60 -70%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $60 −$24 -40%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $25 +$9 +35%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $251 +$53 +21%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $40 +$18 +43%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $151 +$60 +40%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $183 +$78 +43%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $65 +$6 +9%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $201 +$27 +13%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $124 +$40 +32%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $112 −$112 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $15 +$3 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,018 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,000 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 3h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 98¢ $269 5h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 98¢ $12 5h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 98¢ $196 5h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 98¢ $13 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $169 7h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 7h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 7h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 99¢ $21 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $10 14h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $25 14h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 91¢ $25 24h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 90¢ $201 33h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 33h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $251 34h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 34h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 94¢ $40 34h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $25 34h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,684.12 · official $1,683.45 (match) · 1537 history records