Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:56:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D1
0xd16b…7aa5
world · 40 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$44
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses13 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage296d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 1 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 42¢ 42¢ $44 $44 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $41 −$1 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $47 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $37 +$4 +12%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $74 −$1 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $42 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $116 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $42 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $22 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $28 −$1 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 -3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $1 $0 +8%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $43 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $44 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Mar 25 $25 +$3 +14%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Jan 31 $2 $0 -9%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 24 $8 $0 +5%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 11 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 21 $33 $0 +1%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $49 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Nov 19 $22 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Nov 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 01 $27 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by September 30? Sep 26 $1 $0 +7%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $39 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 25 $43 $0 +1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 22 $4 $0 -5%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 22 $35 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 21 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 51% $0
other 30% −$4
politics 12% +$4
sports 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $44 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 70¢ $40 10h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $40 11h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $1 11h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 20h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 21h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 25h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 38h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 38h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 40h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $42 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $37 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $7 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $33 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $41 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $30 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $6 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $37 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $33 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $4 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $37 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $42 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $42 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $12 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $26 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL No 99¢ $42 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 100¢ $42 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.5% -9.1% 20% 10% -9.2%
≤30d 15 +0.4% -9.1% 20% 7% -9.4%
≤90d 16 +1.3% -8.4% 25% 12% -8.9%
all 39 -1.4% -10.8% 33% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 8% -9.5%
10% -19.3% 3% -18.2%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.57 · official $43.58 (match) · 144 history records