Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:05:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd167…26af crypto 1208 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (173 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,023 (+3%) realized +$4,057 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate18%220W / 985L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day173.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$781now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (173 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1205 +0.1% -9.4% 18% 10% -9.5%
≤30d 1205 +0.1% -9.4% 18% 10% -9.5%
≤90d 1205 +0.1% -9.4% 18% 10% -9.5%
all 1205 +0.1% -9.4% 18% 10% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover173.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 10% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 3% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$26 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$781
Realized+$4,057
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses220 / 985
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1205 / 1208
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$99
Trades / day173.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Down 50¢ 81¢ $100 $163 +$63 (+63%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 50¢ 18¢ $50 $18 −$32 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $200 +$100 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $200 −$33 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $200 −$34 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $200 −$34 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $340 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $140 +$34 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $140 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $140 +$23 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $140 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $140 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $140 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $140 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $140 +$34 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $140 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $140 +$23 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $140 +$12 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $140 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $140 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $140 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $140 −$23 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $140 −$47 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $140 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $140 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $140 +$29 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $140 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $140 −$24 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $350 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $210 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $210 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $210 −$24 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $210 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $210 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $210 −$43 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $210 +$25 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $210 +$40 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $210 +$38 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $210 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $210 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $17 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $19 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $29 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $19 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $20 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $17 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $16 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $11 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $781.48 · official $752.50 · 3500 history records