Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:09:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D1
0xd165…f2b8
sports · 158 markets active 1h ago
6.0score
+$10,215 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$10,223 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,292
Realized+$10,223
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses117 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions5
Markets (closed)153 / 158
History coverage134d
Avg bet$1,420
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 5 History 153 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$180
7 days+$180
14 days+$1,232
30 days+$1,522
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $1,000 $999 −$1 (-0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $1,000 $995 −$5 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Casper Ruud 59¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina Iga Swiatek 79¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik Alex de Minaur 77¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Flavio Cobolli 39¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? Yes 63¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bordeaux: Martin Damm vs Grigor Dimitrov Grigor Dimitrov 64¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Confucius" or "Confucian" during Chinese State Banquet? No 95¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 13 $23,368 +$180 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $22,130 +$1,048 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $10 +$1 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 31 $10 +$3 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev May 30 $150 +$5 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $30 +$12 +40%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 28 $102 +$18 +18%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik May 28 $30 −$30 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien May 28 $150 +$43 +29%
Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud May 21 $38 +$12 +32%
Geneva Open: Edas Butvilas vs Alexander Bublik May 20 $101 +$36 +36%
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 18 $200 −$4 -2%
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May May 18 $200 +$7 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 18 $17,564 +$192 +1%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev May 14 $30 +$10 +34%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $302 +$73 +24%
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Bordeaux: Aleksandar Vukic vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard May 14 $890 +$8 +1%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina May 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Trump's remarks not air? May 14 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Trump say "Confucius" or "Confucian" during Chinese State Banquet May 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 14 $1,007 +$21 +2%
Cordoba: Ryan Dickerson vs Nicolas Kicker May 14 $30 +$6 +19%
Will Cisco Systems (CSCO) beat quarterly earnings? May 13 $157 +$2 +1%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Karen Khachanov May 13 $30 +$8 +26%
Bordeaux: Raphael Collignon vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux May 13 $30 +$4 +13%
Valencia: Matteo Berrettini vs Taro Daniel May 13 $30 +$5 +16%
Zagreb: Yannick Alexandrescou vs Thanasi Kokkinakis May 13 $30 −$13 -43%
Oeiras 4: Eero Vasa vs Jaime Faria May 13 $30 +$3 +11%
Valencia: Henri Squire vs Daniel Altmaier May 13 $30 +$11 +38%
Bordeaux: Martin Damm vs Grigor Dimitrov May 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-11? May 12 $153 +$73 +48%
Will NEOM SC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $156 +$17 +11%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante May 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin May 11 $168 +$5 +3%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Iva Jovic May 11 $121 +$35 +29%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $101 +$20 +20%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Laura Siegemund vs Karolina Pliskova May 11 $100 +$10 +10%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev May 10 $101 +$31 +31%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Jiri Lehecka May 10 $10 +$6 +55%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $101 +$65 +65%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Ben Shelton May 10 $1,002 +$73 +7%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $101 +$65 +65%
Will Coinbase (COIN) beat quarterly earnings? May 08 $1,003 +$57 +6%
Will Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) beat quarterly earnings? May 06 $1,002 +$40 +4%
Will Palantir (PLTR) beat quarterly earnings? May 04 $2,005 +$90 +4%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? May 01 $17,158 +$1,644 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 75% +$10,477
politics 10% −$35
sports 5% +$112
other 5% +$413
finance 3% +$37
culture 2% −$824
crypto 2% +$70
tech 0% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,003 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,002 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $23,548 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $23,368 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 93¢ $10 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Casper Ruud 59¢ $10 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 74¢ $10 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 98¢ $120 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 89¢ $72 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik BUY Alex de Minaur 77¢ $30 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul BUY Casper Ruud 71¢ $30 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 93¢ $30 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 76¢ $30 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 77¢ $150 16d
Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud BUY Casper Ruud 75¢ $38 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $22,130 23d
Geneva Open: Edas Butvilas vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 73¢ $101 23d
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? SELL No 93¢ $196 25d
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May SELL No 97¢ $207 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL No 100¢ $17,756 25d
Bordeaux: Aleksandar Vukic vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 100¢ $790 29d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 29d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 29d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina BUY Iga Swiatek 79¢ $101 29d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 74¢ $30 29d
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 62¢ $10 29d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 21 +1.8% -7.9% 81% 48% -7.4%
≤90d 78 -1.3% -10.7% 83% 40% -4.8%
all 153 -5.9% -14.9% 76% 36% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 36% -5.4%
10% -23.0% 19% -14.4%
15% -30.5% 11% -22.7%
20% -37.3% 5% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,291.77 · official $2,291.77 (match) · 355 history records