Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D1 0xd161…9f64 crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$34 (+5%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate88%23W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% +$41
sports 23% −$51
other 14% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +3.6% -6.3% 88% 27% -4.7%
≤30d 26 +3.6% -6.3% 88% 27% -4.7%
≤90d 26 +3.6% -6.3% 88% 27% -4.7%
all 26 +3.6% -6.3% 88% 27% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.3% 27% -4.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.3% 12% -13.8%
15% -23.4% 12% -22.2%
20% -30.9% 0% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$23 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses23 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +15%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 +$32 +48%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $10 −$9 -90%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $86 −$48 -56%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $25 +$11 +44%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $25 +$6 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $19 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 16h
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You SELL Xiaodi You 1¢ $0 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 20h
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You BUY Xiaodi You 63¢ $10 20h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Tomas Etcheverry 1¢ $1 20h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Tomas Etcheverry 11¢ $10 21h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Jesper de Jong 49¢ $38 22h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere SELL Laslo Djere 44¢ $38 22h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Laslo Djere 55¢ $49 22h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry SELL Diane Parry 95¢ $36 22h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 65¢ $25 23h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya SELL Elina Svitolina 97¢ $5 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records