Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:33:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

D1 0xd161…4cc1 sports 434 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d ⚠

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$34,908 (-11%) realized −$34,908 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip

Net edge-40%after slip

Net WR27%break-even

Win rate29%232W / 563L

Whale WR25%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$720per market

Trades / day49.0pace

Fees−$5,075est.

Kalshi-fit98%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 66d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +27%

net ROI/market (all)-26.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	397	-36.2%	-42.3%	9%	9%	-91.2%
≤30d	528	-25.0%	-32.1%	21%	20%	-76.6%
≤90d	795	-18.2%	-26.0%	29%	27%	-53.8%
all	795	-18.2%	-26.0%	29%	27%	-53.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover49.0 tr/day

realistic slip~15%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-26.0%	27%	-53.8%
10%	-33.0%	25%	-58.2%
15% ← realistic here	-39.5%	23%	-62.2%
20%	-45.4%	20%	-65.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

6% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -18% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 25% (≥$815) big bets weaker

Persistence

early -0% → late -36% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$401 vs −$627 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.26 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$34,908

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses232 / 563

Whale WR (big bets)25%

Est. fees paid−$5,075

Open positions0

Markets (closed)795 / 434

History coverage66d ⚠

Avg bet$720

Trades / day49.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 795 Trades

no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	Jun 17	$260	−$260	-100%
UFC Fight Night: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq Musayev (Lightweight, Pr	Jun 17	$248	−$248	-100%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	Jun 17	$427	−$427	-100%
Bulls vs. Hornets	Jun 17	$268	−$277	-104%
Hornets vs. Celtics	Jun 17	$300	−$300	-100%
Nuggets vs. Jazz	Jun 17	$135	+$15	+11%
Rockets vs. Kings	Jun 17	$305	−$305	-100%
Clippers vs. Hawks	Jun 17	$434	−$384	-88%
Timberwolves vs. Hawks	Jun 17	$286	−$127	-45%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner	Jun 17	$17	−$18	-102%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 17	$36	−$36	-100%
Suns vs. 76ers	Jun 17	$24	+$21	+88%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Oumar Sy (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca	Jun 17	$750	−$750	-100%
Nuggets vs. Celtics	Jun 17	$381	+$387	+102%
76ers vs. Pelicans	Jun 17	$864	−$864	-100%
Knicks vs. Timberwolves	Jun 17	$401	−$401	-100%
Lakers vs. Clippers	Jun 17	$326	−$321	-98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage	Jun 17	$1,246	−$1,246	-100%
Bulls vs. Kings	Jun 17	$550	−$550	-100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers	Jun 17	$330	+$251	+76%
Hawks vs. Grizzlies	Jun 17	$330	−$250	-76%
Bulls vs. Jazz	Jun 17	$422	−$389	-92%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner	Jun 17	$555	−$555	-100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner	Jun 17	$14	−$14	-100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner	Jun 17	$624	−$627	-100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Jun 17	$168	−$168	-100%
Lakers vs. Mavericks	Jun 17	$50	−$50	-100%
Hornets vs. Spurs	Jun 17	$290	−$290	-100%
Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner	Jun 17	$1,114	−$1,114	-100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner	Jun 17	$96	−$96	-100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner	Jun 17	$110	−$78	-71%
Suns vs. Rockets	Jun 17	$310	−$45	-14%
Spurs vs. Nuggets	Jun 17	$696	−$386	-56%
Jazz vs. Thunder	Jun 17	$156	−$156	-100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs	Jun 17	$1,045	−$1,045	-100%
Heat vs. Lakers	Jun 17	$435	−$435	-100%
Hornets vs. Suns	Jun 17	$660	−$660	-100%
Timberwolves vs. Lakers	Jun 17	$385	−$385	-100%
Grizzlies vs. Heat	Jun 17	$300	−$300	-100%
Jazz vs. Warriors	Jun 17	$310	−$265	-86%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stag	Jun 17	$500	−$500	-100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere (BO1)	Jun 17	$3	−$3	-100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	Jun 17	$185	−$185	-100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner	Jun 17	$417	−$417	-100%
Dota 2: Kukuys vs Execration - Game 2 Winner	Jun 17	$809	−$809	-100%
Spurs vs. Lakers	Jun 17	$1	−$1	-100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner	Jun 17	$1,097	−$1,097	-100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs MOUZ (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	Jun 17	$11	−$11	-100%
Clippers vs. Pelicans	Jun 17	$480	−$480	-100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage	Jun 17	$720	−$720	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	BUY Austria	76¢	$230	26m
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	BUY Austria	73¢	$33	27m
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	BUY Austria	73¢	$50	27m
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	BUY Austria	73¢	$2	27m
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	BUY Austria	73¢	$200	27m
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	BUY Austria	73¢	$13	27m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	10¢	$24	40m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL No	12¢	$12	48m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	50¢	$51	56m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	39¢	$56	1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	53¢	$54	1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	39¢	$2	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	BUY Jordan	47¢	$24	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	BUY Jordan	47¢	$72	1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Under	54¢	$164	2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	69¢	$348	4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Under	62¢	$94	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	82¢	$412	5h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	56¢	$269	8h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	56¢	$13	8h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	56¢	$1	8h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	56¢	$2	8h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	56¢	$2	8h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	56¢	$1	8h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	56¢	$1	8h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	56¢	$20	8h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	56¢	$4	8h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	56¢	$20	8h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	56¢	$1	8h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	56¢	$1	8h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records