Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:59:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D1 0xd15e…804b other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$70 (+1%) realized +$70 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate76%16W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$279per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$1,182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$65
world 10% +$8
finance 3% +$2
economics 3% +$1
sports 1% −$5
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 11 -44.8% -50.0% 55% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 13 -37.8% -43.7% 62% 0% -8.8%
all 21 -8.6% -17.3% 76% 24% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 24% -8.3%
10% -25.2% 19% -17.1%
15% -32.4% 14% -25.1%
20% -39.1% 5% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$643) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.45 per $1 lost it wins $4.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$1,182
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses16 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage214d
Avg bet$279
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fiston Mayele: 3+ goals No 99¢ 99¢ $1,180 $1,181 +$1 (+0%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 65¢ 42¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 Nigeria? Jun 10 $693 +$7 +1%
Exact Score: Indonesia 3 - 3 Mozambique? Jun 09 $692 +$8 +1%
Exact Score: Niger 3 - 3 Mauritania? Jun 08 $686 +$14 +2%
Exact Score: Kosovo 3 - 3 Andorra? Jun 08 $643 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Armenia 2 - 3 Kazakhstan? Jun 07 $693 +$7 +1%
Colorado State vs. Boise State Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Raptors vs. Knicks Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Ravens vs. Steelers Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Lions vs. Vikings Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Georgia 3 - 3 Bahrain? Jun 06 $643 +$7 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 06 $205 +$2 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 22 $201 +$1 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Mar 12 $204 +$2 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Feb 16 $210 +$3 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? Feb 06 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Feb 04 $130 +$15 +11%
Suns vs. Pistons Feb 02 $4 +$2 +43%
Chiefs vs. Titans Dec 24 $3 +$5 +170%
Seahawks vs. Falcons Dec 16 $7 +$2 +35%
Clippers vs. Celtics Nov 22 $7 +$4 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fiston Mayele: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,180 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 Nigeria? BUY No 99¢ $693 7d
Exact Score: Indonesia 3 - 3 Mozambique? BUY No 99¢ $692 8d
Exact Score: Niger 3 - 3 Mauritania? BUY No 98¢ $686 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 10d
Exact Score: Kosovo 3 - 3 Andorra? BUY No 99¢ $643 10d
Exact Score: Armenia 2 - 3 Kazakhstan? BUY No 99¢ $693 11d
Exact Score: Georgia 3 - 3 Bahrain? BUY No 99¢ $643 12d
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 72d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $205 87d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $201 97d
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $204 120d
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $210 130d
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $200 132d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 BUY No 90¢ $130 134d
Suns vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 70¢ $4 152d
Ravens vs. Steelers BUY Ravens 66¢ $6 163d
Lions vs. Vikings BUY Lions 77¢ $8 174d
Chiefs vs. Titans BUY Titans 37¢ $3 182d
Seahawks vs. Falcons BUY Seahawks 74¢ $7 191d
Raptors vs. Knicks BUY Raptors 28¢ $2 198d
Colorado State vs. Boise State BUY Colorado State 13¢ $1 206d
Clippers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 68¢ $7 213d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,182.15 · official $1,182.15 (match) · 43 history records