trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +1.1% | -8.5% | 100% | 0% | -8.5% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -44.8% | -50.0% | 55% | 0% | -8.8% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -37.8% | -43.7% | 62% | 0% | -8.8% |
| all | 21 | -8.6% | -17.3% | 76% | 24% | -8.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.3% | 24% | -8.3% |
| 10% | -25.2% | 19% | -17.1% |
| 15% | -32.4% | 14% | -25.1% |
| 20% | -39.1% | 5% | -32.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiston Mayele: 3+ goals | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $1,180 | $1,181 | +$1 (+0%) |
| Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Yes | 65¢ | 42¢ | $2 | $1 | −$1 (-36%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 Nigeria? | Jun 10 | $693 | +$7 | +1% |
| Exact Score: Indonesia 3 - 3 Mozambique? | Jun 09 | $692 | +$8 | +1% |
| Exact Score: Niger 3 - 3 Mauritania? | Jun 08 | $686 | +$14 | +2% |
| Exact Score: Kosovo 3 - 3 Andorra? | Jun 08 | $643 | +$7 | +1% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET | Jun 07 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Exact Score: Armenia 2 - 3 Kazakhstan? | Jun 07 | $693 | +$7 | +1% |
| Colorado State vs. Boise State | Jun 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Raptors vs. Knicks | Jun 06 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Ravens vs. Steelers | Jun 06 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Lions vs. Vikings | Jun 06 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Exact Score: Georgia 3 - 3 Bahrain? | Jun 06 | $643 | +$7 | +1% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | Apr 06 | $205 | +$2 | +1% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee | Mar 22 | $201 | +$1 | +1% |
| US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? | Mar 12 | $204 | +$2 | +1% |
| US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? | Feb 16 | $210 | +$3 | +2% |
| US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? | Feb 06 | $200 | +$2 | +1% |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 | Feb 04 | $130 | +$15 | +11% |
| Suns vs. Pistons | Feb 02 | $4 | +$2 | +43% |
| Chiefs vs. Titans | Dec 24 | $3 | +$5 | +170% |
| Seahawks vs. Falcons | Dec 16 | $7 | +$2 | +35% |
| Clippers vs. Celtics | Nov 22 | $7 | +$4 | +47% |