Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:19:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd15d…df55 sports 21 markets active 3d ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$287 (-14%) realized −$287 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate67%14W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$318
14 days−$298
30 days−$298
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$247
other 11% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -1.2% -10.6% 65% 40% -24.4%
≤30d 21 +0.1% -9.5% 67% 43% -22.9%
≤90d 21 +0.1% -9.5% 67% 43% -22.9%
all 21 +0.1% -9.5% 67% 43% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 43% -22.9%
10% -18.1% 33% -30.2%
15% -26.0% 14% -37.0%
20% -33.3% 10% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$88 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$287
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses14 / 7
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage7d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $82 +$4 +5%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $12 +$48 +400%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $98 +$69 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $131 −$119 -91%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $202 +$11 +6%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $40 +$12 +30%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $63 +$21 +34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $93 +$7 +7%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $149 +$6 +4%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $40 −$40 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $151 +$39 +26%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $133 +$18 +13%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $110 +$23 +21%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $294 −$294 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $77 +$33 +44%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $80 +$21 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $14 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 68¢ $13 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 68¢ $6 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 68¢ $12 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 68¢ $2 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 20¢ $12 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 22¢ $5 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $98 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $86 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $11 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $82 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $131 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $214 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $102 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $100 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $53 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $40 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $100 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $84 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $63 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $93 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $149 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $40 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $151 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $133 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $110 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 69¢ $77 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records